For the Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC West isn’t a competition so much as it is a warmup for their actual season: the playoffs. Kansas City has won the division comfortably in each of the past nine seasons, the longest such active streak in football, as their dynastic era under head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes shows no signs of slowing down.
This season, though, the West has tightened up. Three of the division’s four teams made the postseason last year, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos both earning wild card berths. Travis Kelce took a step back last season and Kansas City still needs to sort out both its offensive line and running back positions, so the division seems more wide-open than ever.
The Chiefs are still favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, but it’s not inconceivable that the West could be in play for Denver or Los Angeles.
AFC West Winner Odds
Was Kansas City’s 40-22 loss in Super Bowl LIX more a sign of the Philadelphia Eagles’ dominance or of fatal flaws with the Chiefs’ system? In that game, Mahomes was pressured at one of the highest rates of his postseason career, and he struggled, completing just 21 of his 32 passes for 257 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in a game that was very much padded by garbage-time stats. Kansas City addressed the weakness on the offensive line by signing Jaylon Moore in free agency and drafting Joshua Simmons in the first round before beefing up the defensive line with Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte in the second and third rounds.
I still have my questions about the Chiefs’ offense, though. Tight end Travis Kelce is getting older and looked like a shadow of himself in both the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. Kansas City ranked near the bottom of the league last season in rushing yards and yards per carry, only gaining 49 yards on the ground in the Super Bowl, and it didn’t add depth beyond Isiah Pacheco and the aging Kareem Hunt. With the exception of Xavier Worthy, its wideouts are also relatively unknown commodities, and it’ll need its elite secondary and rushing defense in order to win games.
The Broncos are only getting better, adding to an already strong secondary by drafting Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron on the first round. They also addressed their need at running back in the second round, taking Central Florida running back R.J. Harvey, who was one of the more productive options on the board, and signing former Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins, as well as several offensive linemen to help protect Bo Nix, who showed tremendous strides as a rookie. The division is stacked with coaches; Sean Payton should challenge Reid as the best in the division.
Los Angeles also shored up some of its issues by signing free agent running back Najee Harris and drafting North Carolina back Omarion Hampton in the first round. It also drafted a wideout in the second round to help build a strong offense around Justin Herbert before adding to the defensive line, where it suffered significant losses in free agency, in the next few rounds. Herbert led the league in interception percentage during a resurgent regular season before throwing four picks in a disastrous playoff performance, but at age 27, he might still have some room to grow.
Overall, while Denver had the strongest offseason, the Chargers finished the season in better form and might have won a playoff game if not for Herbert’s uncharacteristically terrible performance. Jim Harbaugh has won at all levels at which he’s ever coached. Give me Los Angeles (+310) as the best value.
