The Yankees roll into Great American Ball Park tonight staring down the barrel of a rare sweep, but don’t let the Reds’ hot streak fool you. Max Fried is on the hill, the ballpark is primed for fireworks, and this game will swing on the Yankees rediscovering their thunder against a pitcher they can punish. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Orioles and the Rangers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reds vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Max Fried is the stopper the Yankees need. Forget the losing streaks. Forget the Reds riding a three-game win streak into this one. None of it matters when Fried is locked in. The left-hander is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP across 101 innings. He’s racking up 8.6 strikeouts per nine, keeping his ground ball rate sky-high at 53.8%, and limiting damage in one of the most homer-happy parks in baseball. That’s the edge tonight. Fried knows how to suppress hard contact—his xSLG sits at a tidy .395—and that skill will travel to Cincinnati.
The Reds counter with Brady Singer. He’s been better this June, posting a 2.86 ERA this month, but let’s not pretend he’s in Fried’s class. Singer strikes out just 19.6% of batters and carries a pedestrian 1.30 WHIP. His xSLG is up at .465. The Yankees lineup is cold—.219 over the last two weeks—but they still sit top-four in home runs, runs scored, and ISO. That kind of raw power plays against a pitcher like Singer who doesn’t miss enough bats and allows loud contact.
And while Cincinnati has been playing well, the numbers scream regression against elite left-handers. Elly De La Cruz thrives on fly-ball pitchers, but Fried forces too many grounders to give him launch. Cincinnati is hitting just .247 at home all season with a .175 ISO, and they rank 14th in hits. The Yankees may not be swinging the hottest bats, but the Reds haven’t shown they can sustain this pace against top-shelf arms.
Fade the narrative and focus on the value. Yankees are 12-4 when Fried toes the rubber. Even better, they’re 5-3 on the road in his starts with a 2.26 road ERA and a 0.99 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium. That’s exactly the profile you want backing a road favorite tonight.
Yankees vs. Reds pick, best bet
And the weather plays into this pick. Mid-80s temps in Cincinnati boost fly-ball carry, but Fried’s elite ground-ball rate will minimize that. On the other side, Singer will struggle against Judge and Stanton, especially if Stanton continues to drive the ball like he has in his last few games. Exit velocities for Stanton and Judge both sit north of 95 mph this past week. That kind of contact will do damage.
Add the trends. The Yankees have cashed 75% of Fried’s starts as favorites. The Reds, on the other hand, have dropped back-to-back games just once with Singer this year — and they’re due for another. Over the last 12 games, New York is 3-9 straight up, but those came with much less stable arms on the mound. With Fried, this is different. And 12 of New York’s last 13 games have stayed under the posted total — the offense is still finding its stride.
That’s my edge tonight. Yankees will control the game early behind Fried’s brilliance, and they’ll tack on just enough against Singer and this suspect Reds bullpen. I’m locking in New York to cover the -1.5 run line. It’s a bold call, but this is exactly the matchup where the Yankees assert themselves and avoid the sweep. Book Yankees -1.5 with full confidence — tonight they silence the Reds and cash in style.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (-135) at Reds
Fried stops the bleeding tonight—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
