In the evening window of Tuesday’s loaded 15-game MLB slate, the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies to begin a three-game series at Daikin Park. Both teams are playing great baseball right now, so it should bring some memorable moments to the table over the coming days.
Here’s an Astros vs. Phillies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s 8:10 p.m. EST first pitch.
Astros vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are on a roll lately and have shot up power rankings in recent weeks. They’re 45-33 on the season and 14-6 in June so far, the MLB’s best record this month. They’re nearly unstoppable when playing at home with a 27-13 record at their own ballpark, so there’s an advantage to be found here.
The team ranks third in AVG and 12th in OPS on the year with the 16th-most runs scored. However, they’ve seen more success lately with the fourth-best OPS and the fourth-most runs over the last 15 days, so the bats are the hottest they’ve been all year at the moment. Oh, and did we mention they’re doing this without Yordan Alvarez, who hasn’t played since May 2 with a hand injury? With one of the best pitching staffs in baseball (seventh in ERA, second in WHIP, first in strikeouts by a 40-K margin), the Astros are about as good as it gets when the bats are online to provide run support.
Philadelphia Phillies
As for the visiting Phillies, they hold the MLB’s third-best record at 47-31 and enter this series just as hot as Houston. Philadelphia sits 8-2 across their last 10 games after taking two of three contests against the Mets in their last series. With a 21-17 record on the road, playing away from home doesn’t seem too daunting for this squad.
Philadelphia ranks second in AVG and just a hair ahead of their opponents in the stat, while the team’s OPS comes in eighth with the ninth-most runs scored. One thing to note is that they’re tied for sixth in walks drawn, a far better mark than the Astros, though Philly has just one less strikeout than their foes. At sixth in OPS and eighth in runs over the last 15 days, they’re also firing on all cylinders right now. The pitching situation separates these franchises as the Phillies fall 15th in ERA and 17th in WHIP, though they’re third in strikeouts on the year.
Astros vs. Phillies pick, best bet
In this battle between red-hot teams, the Astros are a -157 Moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies come in at +129 on the Moneyline with the run total set at 7.5 for the opening game of the series.
The pitching matchups bring a lefty vs. lefty duel this evening as Framber Valdez takes on Ranger Suarez. Valdez has thrown 96.0 innings for Houston this season with an 8-4 record, a 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 99 strikeouts. He’s absolutely shoving, but so is Suarez with a 6-1 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 52 punchouts across 57.1 innings. With these two talented hurlers on the mound tonight, this game has the makings of a pitchers’ duel.
The run total remains low at 7.5, but I actually still feel pretty confident taking the under at -119 odds. Both of the starters are throwing the ball at an elite level and both teams’ splits against lefties look pretty similar this year. The outcome feels like a coin toss, so we’re rooting for as few runs as possible while we enjoy the battle between Valdez and Suarez tonight.
Best bet: Under 7.5 runs (-119)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
