As heat waves batter the East Coast, fans are braving the triple-digit temperatures to see the world’s best baseball players in action. Like the weather, offenses tend to heat up in the summer; according to a 2013 study by University of Nevada-Reno researchers Brandon Lee D. Koch and Anna K. Panorska, games with a first-pitch temperature north of 83 degrees Fahrenheit were significantly more high-scoring for both AL and NL teams than those with first-pitch temperatures below 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
There should be plenty of offense today, with games scheduled in New York (high of 102 F), Cincinnati (high of 95 F), and St. Louis (high of 96 F). Here are two pitchers, three infielders, and three outfielders I’m targeting for tonight’s action.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels, $11,000 – Crochet is a combination of workhorse and devastatingly effective hurler; not only does he lead the American League in innings pitched this season (102.1), but he also tops all of the major leagues in strikeouts (125). Besides a June 7 outing in which he conceded five runs on six hits in six innings of work (21.3 FPTS), he’s basically been un-hittable all season, ranking in the top tertile in nearly every Statcast category. Despite some resurgent play from Mike Trout ($4,500) since his return from injury, the Angels have posted the league’s sixth-worst OPS so far in June and whiff at the league’s second-highest rate.
Value
Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, $6,500 – Targeting the Chicago White Sox is a tried and true formula, as the Pope’s favorite team languishes at the bottom of the AL Central with a 25-54 record. The White Sox’s problems are two-fold; their pitching staff has the ninth-highest ERA this season, and their offense has the worst OPS. Nelson, meanwhile, has settled in nicely with two straight strong starts, including a 5.2-inning, one-hit (20.35-FPT) effort against the Toronto Blue Jays last Thursday. The 27-year-old has struggled to induce chases or whiffs this season, and while Chicago doesn’t chase much, it whiffs at an above-average rate.
INFIELDER
Stud
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins, $6,400 – Picking such an expensive player always comes with risk involved, but have you seen Raleigh’s stats recently? He’s gone deep in four straight games and five of his last six, posting 20 or more FPTS in four of those games. Over his last 10 games, his slash line is an eye-popping .359/.457/.897 (17 FPTS per game), which makes him easily worth his DFS salary. The cherry on top is that Raleigh is facing Chris Paddack ($6,600), who gives up hard hits at just a 32nd-percentile rate and throws his four-seam fastball on nearly half of his pitches. This season, Raleigh has posted a .624 slugging percentage against four-seamers.
Stud
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, $4,600 – Caminero ranks third in the American League in homers behind only Raleigh and Aaron Judge ($6,700), and he’s been incredibly hot during his last 10 games, slashing .351/.455/.703, with four homers, nine RBI’s, and as many walks as strikeouts (11.9 FPTS per game). The sky is the limit for the 21-year-old Dominican, who pairs a 100th-percentile bat speed with a 75th-percentile whiff rate. Caminero faces a tough matchup against Kris Bubic ($9,000), whose 2.12 ERA ranks fourth in the American League, but Bubic has gotten lucky, especially with his slider, and Caminero has mashed sliders to the tune of a .420 wOBA so far this season.
Value
Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins, $3,800 – It has been a miserable season for the Giants’ marquee offseason acquisition, as he’s been hitting below the Mendoza Line for most of the campaign. However, he has posted three double-digit fantasy performances in the last six games, and he still records barrels at a 66th-percentile rate, indicating that he’s getting a little bit unlucky for his slash line to be as bad as it is. I like his chances to continue his bounce-back against Cal Quantrill ($6,000), who has posted a 6.53 ERA in 30.4 innings on the road, gives up barrels at a 16th-percentile rate, and is backed up by the league’s seventh-worst bullpen.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, $6,500 – Like Raleigh, Acuña is expensive but worth his monumental salary. Last night, he went two-for-five with a solo homer (22 FPTS) because of course he did. Over his last 10 games, he’s slashed .485/.614/.848 with 17 runs scored and 11 walks (15.6 FPTS per game), showing no signs of weakness in the torn ACL that ended his 2024 season prematurely. Hitting against the Mets, who have the league’s best pitching staff overall and a 2.84 ERA at home, is always tough, but New York will be relying on Frankie Montas ($7,400) to make his season debut. In four rehab starts with Triple-A Syracuse, he gave up 21 runs in 14.1 innings (a 13.19 ERA).
Stud
Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds, $4,800 – The last time I opted to fade a top prospect making his MLB debut, I was very wrong, as Jacob Misiorowski started his MLB career with 11 no-hit innings, the longest such streak in baseball history. But I’ll try my luck again against Chase Burns ($8,000), who might have a rough welcome to the big leagues against the Yankees’ high-powered, even if slumping, offense. Belli has had three double-digit fantasy performances in his last five games, including a three-for-four, two-double (13-FPT) outing in the series opener last night, and I like his power ceiling in hot conditions at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Value
Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, $3,800 – As a Dodgers fan, I have been overjoyed about the fact that Conforto is no longer unilaterally trusted over Hyeseong Kim ($5,000), but because Dave Roberts is my team’s manager, I have a sneaking suspicion that it’ll be Conforto, not Kim, tonight. If the 32-year-old is going to perform against anybody, it’ll be Colorado at high elevation; Gérman Márquez ($4,500) has pitched to a 6.11 ERA this season and gave up seven runs while getting two outs (-15.3 FPTS) in his previous outing against Los Angeles.
