Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. No matter what you call them, you love seeing them happen in a baseball game. You probably love betting on them, too.
With that in mind, here are my top three home run prop picks for Tuesday’s full MLB slate on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+360)
Vladdy hasn’t been hitting a ton of home runs in 2025, as he comes into Tuesday’s meeting with Logan Allen with just 10 to his name across 334 plate appearances. Still, Guerrero also enters tonight’s action with a 95th percentile hard hit rate (54.6%) and a 94th percentile expected slugging rate (.544). It would stand to reason that the long balls will start coming in bunches, especially in matchups with LHPs. Among players with at least 50 PAs within the split, Guerrero’s .484 expected wOBA against southpaws is the fourth-highest mark in MLB. Tonight’s lefty isn’t your average LHP, either. Logan Allen surrendered a whopping 2.03 opponent home runs per nine over 20 starts in 2024. This season, Allen’s been sightly better at keeping the ball in the park, though his HR/9 in June is currently sitting a 2.08. Not exactly ideal if you’re the Guardians.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+285)
As much as this prop is about Olson, it’s just as much about Frankie Montas. The veteran right-hander will make his first MLB start of the season on Tuesday, after spending the last three months on the IL with a lat injury. To say that Montas’ rehab assignment went poorly would be a massive understatement. In his four outings at Triple-A, Montas surrendered a grand total of eight home runs in only 14.1 innings of work. That’s 5.02 long balls allowed per nine. Woof. All of the Braves’ top bats are obviously viable for a home run prop bet in this tasty matchup, but keep a close eye on Olson. The former All-Star has been on fire since mid-May, slashing .302/.388/.595 with eight long balls and a .294 ISO in his last 147 plate appearances. For 2025 as a whole, Olson ranks in the 97th percentile of barrel rate (17.5%).
Max Muncy 1+ Home Run (+275)
By now I think everyone’s pretty familiar with the story. Muncy got off to a horrible start to the season, got prescription glasses, now he’s one of the best hitters on the Dodgers again. Since the beginning of May, Muncy is slashing .304/.451/.591 with a .287 ISO and a 187 wRC+ against RHPs. That stretch also includes nine home runs within the split. On Tuesday, Muncy will take that perfect vision on the road to Colorado, where he and the rest of Los Angeles’ lineup will get to square-off with German Marquez in the altitude. Muncy’s been on the Dodgers forever. Marquez has been on the Rockies forever. So, as you might expect, these two have seen a lot of each other. In 32 career at-bats, Muncy’s taken Marquez deep four times. That’ll play.
