First pitch at Busch tonight is loaded with stakes. The Cubs come in off a sloppy 1–3 stretch, and St. Louis returns home looking to build off a 6–1 heater before that flat finish against Cincinnati. Liberatore vs. Brown is a stark contrast of styles, and as the Cubs and Cardinals collide in a crucial NL Central series, and the stakes couldn’t feel higher. The Cubs are the talk of the NL standings town, but in order for them to really elevate, they’re going to need to win these divisional rivalry series on the regular throughout the summer. That said! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday night baseball game between the Cardinals and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Ben Brown takes the mound for Chicago with a 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and that’s a major red flag. His 26.3% strikeout rate looks appealing, but his 1.09 HR/9 and steep 5.82 ERA on the road expose him. The Cardinals feast on righties at home and hit .257 with an .808 OPS against them. Look for Brendan Donovan (.308 AVG), Nolan Arenado (10 HR), and Willson Contreras (50 RBI) to jump on Brown early. St. Louis leads the majors in walks allowed, and they rarely beat themselves with free passes.
Matthew Liberatore draws the ball for St. Louis with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP that jumps off the page. His elite 3.3% walk rate and 7.5 K/9 mean hitters have to earn their way on base. Liberatore has been even sharper at home, sporting a 3.95 ERA and suppressing hard contact (.244 opponent AVG). The Cubs’ power-heavy lineup thrives on mistakes, but Busch plays big. Kyle Tucker (.285 AVG, .395 OBP) and Seiya Suzuki (.256 AVG, 64 RBI) will need to manufacture runs against a lefty who loves to work ahead.
Chicago rolls in with a dangerous offense, ranking second in MLB with 5.4 runs per game and a 0.444 slugging percentage. St. Louis counters with one of the most disciplined lineups in baseball, sporting a .327 OBP and a top-five team batting average at home (.268). Every swing matters here.
The star power is impossible to ignore. Alec Burleson is riding a heater, slashing .350 over his last 10 games with a .596 SLG and an elite 45% hard-hit rate that screams extra-base damage. Brendan Donovan leads all regulars with a .308 AVG and a 140 wRC+ that reflects how efficiently he’s producing. Nolan Arenado (.247 AVG, 10 HR, 39 RBI) may not be crushing like years past, but his 9.0% barrel rate and improving xBA (.268) show his underlying power is intact. On Chicago’s side, Kyle Tucker (.285 AVG, .395 OBP) continues to sting the ball with a 50% hard-hit rate and a robust 174 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Seiya Suzuki is driving in runs at a torrid pace too, sporting a .358 wOBA and a 10.8% barrel rate that screams trouble for left-handers. Even our lord and savior Pete Crow-Armstrong (.559 SLG, 21 HR on the season) is making loud contact at a 15.3% barrel rate, which fuels Chicago’s top-ranked RBI total.
Yet all this star power doesn’t mean this game will blow past nine runs. Busch Stadium suppresses home runs and Liberatore’s elite command limits free passes, forcing Chicago into long at-bats that produce more ground balls than big innings. Brown’s swing-and-miss stuff can keep the Cardinals’ barrels in check early too.
Some might argue the Cubs’ explosive offense can overpower anyone. Chicago ranks top two in RBIs and doubles and is 21-16 on the road. But they’ve gone 1-3 in their last four games, their bullpen carries a 5.04 ERA in their last ten, and they lean too much on the long ball. Liberatore forces them to string hits together, and they haven’t been doing that on the road (.372 team slugging away). Busch’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and an 8-2-1 under streak in the Cardinals’ last 11 home games also push this one toward the under.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
There’s also a sneaky betting edge tonight. The Cardinals are 24-15 at home and 18-6 at home against right-handed starters (+12.4 units). Chicago is 6-9 on the road against teams with winning records, and Brown has yielded 29 hits and 18 ER in his last 20 innings. Wind blowing out to left-center at 8-10 mph could help early scoring, but I trust Liberatore and St. Louis’ bullpen to lock this one down late. The Cubs’ bullpen has too many question marks right now.
When I look at the trends, the picture sharpens further. St. Louis has covered the run line in 10 of its last 11 night games against the NL, and Chicago has failed to cover in seven of its last eight after playing the previous day. Liberatore’s command (2.63 K/BB) and ability to control innings gives him the edge over Brown, especially with the Cubs’ offensive splits cooling off. Busch Stadium and Liberatore’s style are a perfect antidote to Chicago’s free-swinging approach.
That’s why I’m hammering the under. The posted total of 9.0 feels too high given the Cardinals’ discipline, Liberatore’s ground-ball profile, and Chicago’s offensive regression. Busch suppresses homers, Liberatore suppresses walks, and the Cubs’ bullpen is too shaky to last. Take the under 9.0 with conviction. This game is built for a tight, pitcher-controlled affair.
Best bet: Cubs vs. Cardinals u9.0 runs (-120)
Cubs are slumping—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
