This is the second game of a three-game series in Tampa Bay between the Rays and visiting Detroit Tigers.
Sawyer Gipson-Long is scheduled to pitch for Detroit while Ryan Pepiot should get the nod for Tampa Bay.
Tigers at Rays prediction, preview
Sawyer Gipson-Long tasted MLB action for the first time in 2023. He started four games and pitched 20 very impressive innings. The strikeout rate was a robust 31.7% while the walk rate of 9.8% was good for such a young pitcher. The 2.7 ERA wasn’t too far off from the 3.16 FIP. Unfortunately, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery and just made his return recently. In 11.1 innings pitched this season, the strikeout rate is 21.7% while the walk rate is 4.3%. The FIP is much lower than the 3.97 ERA, but the sample size is extremely small.
Gipson has started only one game and pitched 3.2, 4.2 and 3.0 innings. It’s likely that he pitches three to four innings again.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have struck out at the 10th-highest rate while having the 17th-best ISO. The wOBA is seventh-best in MLB.
Ryan Pepiot has consistently been better than the advanced stats throughout his young MLB career. This season is no different, as the 3.11 ERA is much better than the 4.12 FIP. The fastball averages 94.9 mph and the K-BB% is 16.4%. Pepiot has been a master at stranding runners on the basepaths. The strand rate is 84.6% this season and he boasts a career 81.4% mark.
Pepiot is able to strikeout lefties at a much higher rate than righties, but the lefties have a .209 BABIP against him. Pepiot has been much better on the road than at home.
Pepiot has one game allowing over three earned runs this season, and that came in his fourth start. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times and is coming off a masterful performance: eight innings, four hits, one earned run, two walks and 11 strikeouts.
The Tigers have struck out at the fifth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 12th in ISO. The wOBA is 16th-best.
As for bullpens, Detroit has the 18th-lowest FIP while Tampa Bay has the 13th-lowest.
Tigers at Rays, Best Bet
The Rays will likely see plenty of the Tigers bullpen, which should make the home crowd feel giddy inside. Pepiot has been much better on the road than at home and I always worry that he stops pitching better than his advanced stats. Therefore, I like both offenses in this one.
