The Dodgers’ dominance continues as they face the Washington Nationals tonight. The Nationals are walking into a west-coast-love buzzsaw, and the gap between these two teams is glaring. The Dodgers are on a tear, boasting the best offense in the league, while Washington, despite a recent win, is still deep in a slump. But in the end, it’s clear who has the edge tonight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Nationals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Nationals prediction, preview
MacKenzie Gore has been impressive for Washington, but his 2.89 ERA doesn’t tell the full story. His strikeout rate of 12.3 K/9 (which ranks 6th in the NL) is certainly elite, and he’s managed to stay strong throughout the season, with 7+ strikeouts in 11 of 15 starts. Yet, he’s still a 3-6 pitcher for a reason. Despite his stuff, he’s been prone to giving up fly balls, and tonight, he’ll face the most explosive offense in the MLB. The Dodgers rank 1st in wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) at 119 and 1st in home runs (116) this season. They punish pitchers who leave balls up in the zone, and Gore, while talented, isn’t invincible. His fly ball rate of 37.8% against an offense that hits bombs like the Dodgers is a recipe for disaster. Look for the Dodgers to jump on him early.
Gore’s success has come mostly from his ability to avoid hard contact, but the Dodgers’ lineup is a different beast. While he’s struck out 119 batters in 87.1 innings, he’s also allowed a 45.2% hard-hit rate—not good against a team like the Dodgers, who feast on pitches left up in the zone. The Dodgers’ average exit velocity ranks in the 85th percentile across MLB, and they’ll make Gore pay for any mistakes.
Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw is no slouch. While his ERA sits at 3.25, his xERA is just 4.33, suggesting some underlying struggles. His K/9 rate has dipped to 6.5, but Kershaw is still more than capable of shutting down this Nationals lineup. Washington ranks 24th in team wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, and Kershaw’s 40% chase rate will put a strain on a lineup that has been inconsistent at best. Yes, the Nationals can be pesky, but Kershaw’s control and pitchability will keep them from breaking through.
Nationals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
It’s not just the starters—look at the bullpens. The Nationals’ relief corps has been shaky, with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, ranking among the worst in the league. They’re overworked and vulnerable, particularly against a team like the Dodgers that can pile on runs late. On the flip side, the Dodgers’ bullpen has been more stable despite injuries, and with Kershaw in control early, they won’t need to bail him out much.
I’m targeting the Dodgers on the run line. The Nationals have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and the Dodgers have consistently turned it up at home. While the Nationals’ bullpen may keep the game close early, it’s hard to see how they’ll hold off the Dodgers’ bats for a full nine innings. Kershaw and the Dodgers’ offense will prove too much.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) vs. Nationals
Gore will have a solid start, but it’ll fall short—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
