The Dodgers are on a roll, and the Padres are fighting to avoid a sweep. LA has won four of the last five, including a tightly contested 4-3 victory last night. With a lineup boasting Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts, they’ve been in midseason, explosive form all campaign long. Their offense ranks third in the league with 5.56 runs per game, and they’ve hit 116 home runs, also leading MLB in that category. Against San Diego’s 3.60 ERA pitching staff, this lineup is bound to continue its dominant run at Dodger Stadium, where they’ve been solid at 28-12. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, preview
But it’s not just the offense that gives the Dodgers the edge. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, despite some recent struggles, still holds a respectable 2.64 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Padres know Yamamoto well, having hit .417 against him in 36 career at-bats, but his high strikeout rate (28.6%) still gives him an edge over a Padres lineup that strikes out less than most (third-lowest in MLB). Yamamoto has also handled home runs well, sitting in the 77th percentile for expected slugging. He may have a rocky June, but the Dodgers’ bullpen has been strong, ranking 7th in the league.
The Padres, while always dangerous with players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, have struggled at the plate recently. They’re averaging just 4.7 runs per game, and their offense ranks 19th in MLB. They hit slightly better on the road, but their ability to produce power has been inconsistent. Their offense is hampered by a .248 team batting average and their overall lack of explosiveness in comparison to the Dodgers. Ryan Bergert, starting for the Padres, has posted a solid 2.33 ERA this season, but his underlying metrics point to some regression. His 4.68 xFIP suggests he could be due for a letdown, especially against a potent offense like the Dodgers’. Though his ERA is strong, his lack of experience against LA’s hitters puts him at a disadvantage.
The Padres’ offense, while showing flashes, ranks 19th in runs per game (4.7) and 23rd in home runs per game. This team struggles to generate consistent power, sitting in the bottom five in home run rate. While they are strong at extending hits, their lack of explosive power puts them at a disadvantage against the Dodgers’ deep rotation and bullpen. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense is humming along, ranking 1st in MLB in both home runs and RBIs. They’ve found their rhythm after a slow start, and with Mookie Betts (.259/.346/.399) and Freddie Freeman (.336/.417/.509) leading the charge, they are a constant threat.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Recent betting trends back the Dodgers’ dominance. LA has a 64.5% win rate when favored this season and a blistering 8-1 record when favored by -262 or more. They’ve also hit the over in six of their last 10 games, with an average of 6.0 runs per game in that stretch. On the other hand, the Padres have been a disappointing 2-7 as underdogs in their last nine matchups. With the Dodgers at home, where they’re 28-12 and generating 6.17 runs per game, it’s tough to see how the Padres overcome this.
So, what’s the play here? The Dodgers are firing on all cylinders, and with Yamamoto due for a bounce-back start, they’ll get the job done. Bergert’s control issues will catch up to him, and even with the Padres’ strong bullpen, LA’s offense will put enough runs on the board to cover the run line. With the Dodgers averaging 5.56 runs per game and their bullpen ranked seventh in MLB, I have no doubt they’ll hold off any potential late-game rallies from San Diego.
The Dodgers are going to win this one by more than a run.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) vs. Padres
Yamamoto night!—tail the Dodgers with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
