This is a weird slate — even by Thursday standards.
Not only is it a get-away day in baseball, which means games happening all throughout the afternoon, but with multiple postponements on Wednesday, there are two doubleheaders taking place on this slate. As per usual, props have not yet been listed for either Game 2 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
As such, let’s just keep these home runs bets contained to the late grouping of contests, shall we? Here are my top picks to go deep this evening.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+350)
It’s not the largest sample in the world, but Ryan Bergert has some eye-popping reserve-splits so far in 2025, particularly for a right-handed pitcher that features his slider as much as the 25-year-old does. Bergert’s faced 35 left-handed opponents in his seven appearances for the Padres, and he’s held those hitters to an .094 average with a single extra-base hit. Conversely, RHBs are slugging .441 off Bergert with much better marks in contact rate and hard hit rate. Go figure. Any way you slice it, the rookie is an extreme fly ball pitcher (50.0%) and he’ll be going up against a dangerous Dodgers lineup on Thursday. One of the men he’ll face is Hernandez, who isn’t having an amazing campaign, yet still has 13 long balls with an 81st percentile expected slugging rate (.503). Hernandez can hit a home run at any time.
Cam Smith 1+ Home Run (+600)
Smith hit two home runs on June 17. It was noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, it was simply a game with multiple long balls from a former top prospect. Second, and most interestingly, they happened to be Smith’s first home runs since another performance with two homers back on April 18. The common theme in those two contests? The Astros were facing a left-handed starter. Something they have not done often in 2025 — very much to the chagrin of Smith. The rookie only has 35 plate appearances within the split, yet he’s slugging .828 with a .517 ISO against southpaws. Smith also owns a team-high .463 expected wOBA in opposite-hand matchups. Well, good news. Houston will see the left-handed Jacob Lopez this evening. Not only that, Lopez has an extreme fly ball archetype (59.5%) and he’s given up 1.80 opponent home runs per nine across his 30.0 innings.
Brent Rooker 1+ Home Run (+260)
Not to be outdone, there’s a second lefty pitching in Houston this evening that’s prone to surrendering the long ball: Colton Gordon. To wit, Gordon’s seen 108 right-handed opponents so far at the MLB level, and he’s allowed those men to combine for a .567 slugging percentage. That’s what happens when you give up 2.13 home runs per nine within a split. All that to say, the right-handed Brent Rooker should be licking his chops for this matchup. Rooker has 84 home runs dating back to the beginning of 2023 — the ninth-most in baseball in that span of time. Also in that stretch, Rooker is slashing .291/.370/.568 with a .276 ISO and a 161 wRC+ off of southpaws. Add in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, and you’ve got all the making of an explosive game script in Sacramento.
