As a Los Angeles Dodgers fan, it’s my favorite day of the week — Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,300) day! Never mind that the Japanese star has been blown up in two of his last three starts; I’ll have him in my lineup every time he takes the mound.
Still, because of his star power and production, he has a fairly expensive DFS salary. Here are some cheaper options so you can still fit Yamamoto — or the star pitcher of your choice — into your lineup for tonight’s featured five-game evening DFS slate at DraftKings.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st].
SP Jacob Lopez, Athletics vs. Houston Astros, $6,300
The Athletics had won four straight games before getting blown up on Tuesday and Wednesday in the opening games of the series, as both JP Sears and Luis Severino turned in back-to-back bad starts. Thankfully, they should have a chance of bouncing back with Lopez on the mound, given his hot form — he’s allowed zero earned runs across his last 10 innings of work (24.0 FPTS per game). To be fair, his most recent masterpiece came against a Kansas City Royals team that neither walks nor hits for power, but generating a total of 26 whiffs across the two starts is objectively impressive. Despite not throwing very hard, the 27-year-old is exceptional at limiting hard contact, posting a 95th-percentile hard hit rate.
All of the pitchers with cheaper DFS salaries are going against quality offenses, and the Astros are no easy task, having scored 24 runs in the first two games of the series and posting the league’s seventh-best OPS this month. However, Houston’s offensive profile minimizes some of Lopez’s strengths and amplifies his weaknesses. The Astros chase at the league’s seventh-highest rate and walk at its fifth-lowest, two of the only categories in which Lopez ranks below the league median. They also rank seventh-to-last in hard-hit percentage and second-to-last in average exit velocity.
1B/3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, $3,800
Since starting his season on a huge slump, Bohm has been very, very good for the better part of three months. Over his last 43 games, he has slashed .339/.382/.509 (8.0 FPTS per game), and though he’s perhaps gotten unsustainably lucky with a .363 batting average on balls in play across that span, that’s production that justifies more than a $3,800 DFS salary. His contact metrics are elite — a 93rd percentile whiff rate and a 92nd percentile squared-up rate, and while he rarely walks, he also rarely strikes out. His contributions are invaluable in Philadelphia having the league’s eighth-best offense and a 44-30 record, just a game behind the New York Mets.
He should have a nice matchup tonight in Edward Cabrera ($7,000), who, despite being one of the better pitchers on the Marlins, has a 4.10 ERA this season. He’s also coming off two fairly rough starts in a row, giving up six hits and three runs (one earned) in just four innings (12.2 FPTS) on June 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays and then conceding two hits and two runs in three innings (9.8 FPTS) last Friday against the Washington Nationals. Cabrera owns just a 27th-percentile hard hit rate and a 36th-percentile expected batting average, so Bohm should be a good bet for an extra-base hit. Plus, he rarely throws more than 75 pitches, and Miami’s bullpen is the league’s eighth-worst.
OF Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $4,200
This is a little bit more expensive than I’d ordinarily like to go for a value pick, but Pages has been arguably the Dodgers’ best hitter in the last few games while Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) is slumping. In his last 10 games, Pages is slashing .344/.351/.719 with three homers, 11 RBI’s, and eight runs scored (10.2 FPTS per game), and he’s (fingers crossed) relegated Michael Conforto ($3,000) to the bench for good. The 24-year-old ranks in the 90th percentile in expected batting average and the 91st in launch-angle sweet spot percentage. Sure, he chases too much, but given how rarely he whiffs, he should feel confident about his ability to make contact.
There are some reasons for concern — notably that Los Angeles notoriously gives Yamamoto very little run support — but the Dodgers’ offensive numbers at home (an .858 OPS) are ridiculous. The Padres are starting Ryan Bergert ($6,000), and while the converted reliever has done well in his first three starts of the season, he has struggled mightily with his control and has posted an expected ERA (3.99) more than a point and a half higher than his actual 2.33 mark. He has thrown his fastball on 50 percent of his pitches so far, but unfortunately for him, Pages has posted a .407 wOBA against four-seamers this season.
