This is the final game of a four-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Cristopher Sanchez is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Edward Cabrera should get the nod for Miami.
Phillies at Marlins prediction, preview
Cristopher Sanchez is posting a career-high 26.3% strikeout rate. In addition, he’s allowed only seven home runs in 79.2 innings. The 3.05 ERA is supported by the 3.24 FIP. While the barrel rate is low at 6.1%, the hard hit rate is at a career-high 41.4%.
Sanchez has been deadly against lefties, as they are slashing .186/.304/.203. All seven home runs have come off the bat of righties. Five of the seven home runs have been served up at home.
Sanchez has allowed more than three earned runs only once this season, and that came in his second start of the season. He has gone at least seven innings in three starts, with two of those coming in his most recent outings. This will be his first time facing Miami this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 24th-best ISO. The wOBA is 13th-best in MLB.
Edward Cabrera throws hard and misses bats. He’s averaged at least 96 mph on the fastball and posted a K/9 over 9 in all five MLB seasons. Two of those were over 10. Control has been his bugaboo, though, posting walk rates over 15% twice. The 9.9% walk rate this season is high, but it’s the first time below 10% in his career. Cabrera has a 4.1 ERA that is supported by the 4.02 FIP.
Cabrera has slight reverse splits, as righties have had more success against him. In addition, Cabrera has had more difficulty striking out righties compared to lefties.
Cabrera has allowed over three earned runs twice this season, both at five earned runs. Those came in the second and fourth starts of the season. This will be his first time facing Philadelphia this season.
The Phillies have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 19th in ISO. The wOBA is eighth-best.
As for bullpens, Philadelphia has the 20th-lowest FIP while Miami has the 23rd-lowest.
Phillies at Marlins, Best Bet
Miami scored two, three and two runs in the first three games of this series. I expect a similar output against Sanchez on Thursday. Cabrera is always scary to back due to control issues, but the stuff is electric. I think this is a low-scoring contest.
