This is the final game of a four-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Chase Dollander is scheduled to pitch for Colorado while Trevor Williams should get the nod for Washington.
Rockies at Nationals prediction, preview
Chase Dollander was selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft. He has started 11 games and thrown 50.2 innings in his first stint in the majors this season. And they haven’t been great innings. Sure, he averages 97.7 mph on the fastball, but the swinging strike rate is 10% while the chase rate is only 24.3%. The barrel rate is 14.6% and the hard hit rate is 41.4%. The strikeout rate is 20%, but control has been the big bugaboo, as with most young pitchers. The walk rate is 10.9% and he’s allowed 13 home runs. The 6.57 ERA is somewhat supported by the 6.18 FIP.
Both righties and lefties have had success against Dollander. The biggest split is the struggle pitching in Coors Field, where the FIP is 7.95.
Dollander has allowed over three earned runs five times. Three of those came in the first four starts, though. Dollander faced Washington in his third start of the season. He allowed six earned runs and four home runs in four innings. That game was in Colorado.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. The wOBA is 20th-best in MLB.
Trevor Williams is only averaging 87.7 mph on the fastball. The strikeout rate is only 17% while the hard hit rate is 41.3%. The ERA is 5.71, but he’s been unlucky, as the BABIP is .326 and the strand rate is 61.2%. The FIP is much lower at 3.89.
Lefties have crushed Williams this season, slashing .363/.405/.580 with seven of the eight homers.
Williams has allowed more than three earned runs six times this season while pitching at least six innings only twice. This will be the first time facing Colorado this season.
The Rockies have struck out at the second-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 11th in ISO. The wOBA is 26th-best.
As for bullpens, Colorado has the 28th-lowest FIP while Washington has the 29th-lowest.
Rockies at Nationals, Best Bet
Colorado is usually inept on offense on the road, but the poor Nationals pitching staff has provided them with confidence. The Rockies scored six and 10 runs in the first two games of the series. These teams also have two of the worst bullpens in MLB. I think runs will continue being scored.
