The Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds are both playoff contenders, but recent form paints a clear picture. The Reds have been surging, winning eight of their last 11 games and showing a potent offense. On the other hand, the Twins have struggled lately, dropping five straight and nine of their last 11, with their bats going cold. With these two teams coming into this matchup in different forms, the stage is set for an exciting game that could highlight key trends and statistics. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday afternoon baseball game between the Reds and the Twins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Reds vs. Twins prediction, preview
The Twins’ offensive woes are well-documented. They rank 29th in MLB in average exit velocity (88.1 mph) and sit at a dismal 27th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .299. That’s not a team you want to back against a pitching staff that can thrive on limiting hard contact. Byron Buxton’s .360 wOBA is a bright spot, but he’s struggling with a .339 xwOBA, signaling potential regression. Trevor Larnach and Edouard Julien are showing some pop, but the team still ranks in the bottom third of the league in slugging percentage (.327) and on-base percentage (.274), which will be tough against a Reds team capable of exploiting their weaknesses.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, has been firing on all cylinders offensively. They’re averaging 4.7 runs per game, and their slugging percentage (.460) ranks 5th in the league. Elly De La Cruz, with 16 homers and 50 RBIs, is heating up, and Matt McLain’s .308 xwOBA tells the tale of a solid all-around hitter. T.J. Friedl’s .337 xwOBA and Tyler Stephenson’s .339 wOBA bring depth to a lineup that doesn’t flinch in high-pressure situations. These numbers only get scarier when you consider that the Twins’ pitchers are vulnerable to left-handed power, and Friedl, De La Cruz, and McLain have been scorching against right-handed pitchers.
Let’s not ignore the pitchers on the mound. The Twins send Chris Paddack to the hill, who has posted a respectable 3.50 ERA but has consistently shown vulnerabilities with a 1.32 WHIP and a modest 17.3% K-rate. His xFIP of 4.40 suggests he’s been fortunate to keep the ERA in check. The Reds’ Nick Martinez, on the other hand, may have a higher ERA (4.87), but he’s shown better command, limiting hard contact with a solid 52.6% ground-ball rate. Martinez has been efficient at avoiding long balls, and in a hitter-friendly park like Great American, that’s a massive asset. Paddack, by contrast, has struggled with home runs (1.0 HR/9) and could face real trouble against a Reds lineup that ranks fifth in home runs.
Twins vs. Reds pick, best bet
Cincinnati , again, has won eight of their last 11, powered by timely hitting and a bullpen that’s been working well in relief. The Twins, however, have dropped five straight and—once moore—nine of their last eleven. Even worse, they’ve looked completely out of sync, unable to string together consistent offensive output. That’s not a recipe for success, especially against a Reds squad that has been consistent and aggressive at the plate.
Betting trends further bolster the Reds’ case. They’ve been covering the spread with ease at home, with an 8-3 record when favored by -150 to -200. The Twins, in contrast, are 0-5 against teams with winning records in their last five road games. With the Reds’ lineup lighting up, Paddack’s potential for regressing, and the Twins’ offensive struggles, the Reds look set to continue their recent dominance.
Best bet: Reds (-110) vs. Twins
The Twins are as cold now as they were scorching in May!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
