The Dodgers and Padres face off tonight in a showdown that’s shaping up to be another high-octane affair at Dodger Stadium. With Emmet Sheehan returning to the mound after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, the uncertainty surrounding his performance presents a real opportunity for the Padres. Stephen Kolek, though solid, can be vulnerable as anyone against a potent Dodgers lineup. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Dodgers and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, preview
Sheehan’s rehab stats are solid but against lower-tier competition, and his 2023 MLB sample wasn’t stellar. His 4.92 ERA and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings speak to his potential, but expect some rust tonight. The Padres’ offense is capable of capitalizing on just this kind of situation. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hitting .325 in June, and Manny Machado’s power surge with an 11.4% barrel rate against right-handers sets up a perfect storm. On the other side, Kolek has struggled against lefties, and with Andy Pages and Max Muncy crushing right-handers, expect the Dodgers to break through.
What really stands out is the Dodgers’ home power. Los Angeles is slugging .460 this season, ranking first in the National League, and has a 15.6% hard-hit rate. This high-caliber offense paired with Kolek’s 47.9% hard-hit rate, especially against left-handed hitters, tells me the Dodgers will push the game into high-scoring territory. As a ground-ball pitcher, Kolek may struggle at Dodger Stadium, a park that has seen an increase in home runs this season. Kolek’s 5.6% barrel rate and 89.4 mph average exit velocity against left-handed hitters this season only heightens the risk of big innings for him tonight.
Both teams are relying on worn-out bullpens—San Diego’s is sporting a 4.91 ERA in the last week, and the Dodgers’ bullpen has a 5.52 mark over the past six games. This makes it even easier for these offenses to pick up the slack and turn this game into a shootout. Kolek’s xFIP of 4.42 suggests that his ERA of 3.50 could be due for regression, especially against a Dodgers team that ranks second in MLB with a .828 OPS against right-handed pitchers. With the expected weather—clear skies, 77 degrees, and light winds blowing out to right field—expect more than enough long balls to hit the over.
Padres vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The Dodgers are absolutely on fire at the plate right now. Over the last 10 games, they’ve scored 6+ runs in seven of them, averaging 6.2 runs per game. Will Smith is absolutely locked in, slashing .333/.423/.681 over the last two weeks, with a .452 wOBA, and a 1.104 OPS against right-handers in that stretch. Max Muncy has also been a force, with a .500 slugging percentage over his last 30 plate appearances. Muncy’s 20.2% barrel rate is one of the best marks in the league, and his .388 xwOBA suggests his recent power surge is no fluke. Even a player like J.D. Martinez, who has been relatively quiet, has been more effective at home, boasting a .358 wOBA at Dodger Stadium this year. The Dodgers’ collective 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers ranks thirrd in the league, showcasing their deep offensive lineup.
So here’s how I’m locking it in: take the over 9.5. We’re talking a mix of shaky pitching, high offensive potential, and bullpens primed for late-inning fireworks. The over has hit in four of the last five games between these two teams at Dodger Stadium, with an average of 11.6 total runs per game. The odds favor a game with plenty of scoring, and everything from recent trends to player-specific metrics backs this up.
Oh, also—Ohtani’s gone hitless in his last two games. Think that keeps up? No.
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Padres o9.5 total runs (-105)
Pages might hit another tonight!—tail the Dodgers with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
