Atlanta Braves’ sharp rise in recent days sets them up for a dominant performance against the slumping New York Mets. Despite their sub-.500 season, the Braves are hungry for a win, with Chris Sale on the mound to lock things down. Sale’s been virtually untouchable, posting a 2.79 ERA and holding hitters to a .232 batting average. He’s a perfect fit to stifle a Mets lineup crestfallen by missing key contributors, including star pitchers Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill. The Mets, on the other hand, are struggling to maintain any rhythm, having lost four straight games, including a gut-wrenching loss in Game 1 of this series Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Wednesday night baseball game between the Braves and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Braves vs. Mets prediction, preview
The Mets’ pitching staff, typically a bright spot with the best team ERA in the league (2.97), is facing serious challenges with Paul Blackburn getting the ball. Blackburn’s struggles are well-documented: a 6.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and just 9.1 innings pitched this season. His xFIP of 5.74 indicates that his ERA is unsustainably high, and his strikeout rate sits at a troubling 14.2%. He’s been hammered in his last few outings, including a disastrous relief appearance where he allowed four earned runs in less than an inning. Facing a Braves lineup that’s been heating up—highlighted by Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna—Blackburn doesn’t stand a chance. With Atlanta’s offense finally coming alive, their recent 5-4 win is just a taste of what’s to come. Olson has a 13.6% walk rate, paired with a .868 OPS over the last 14 days, and Riley has posted a .438 wOBA (weighted on-base average) during the same span.
Pete Alonso remains the Mets’ primary offensive threat with his .296 average, 17 home runs, and MLB-leading 63 RBIs. Despite his overall production, Alonso has failed to deliver in recent games, going hitless in four of the past six contests. His .176 ISO against left-handed pitching this season further highlights the Mets’ struggle against lefties.
The Braves’ offense has had its ups and downs this season, but they’re clicking right now, even without a standout performance from Ronald Acuña Jr. The Braves have averaged 5.4 runs over their last five games, with Olson leading the charge. Olson ranks 20th in the majors in isolated power (.221 ISO), and he has a 14.3% barrel rate, indicating he’s consistently squaring up pitches.
Marcell Ozuna, with a .257 batting average and 11 home runs, is swinging a hot bat, hitting .263 in his last five games, adding two home runs and eight RBIs. Sale, meanwhile, has been near-perfect in his last five starts, giving up just three earned runs in 33 innings. His 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings are indicative of his dominance, and his 4.45 K/BB ratio showcases his excellent control. His ability to generate swings and misses will further silence a Mets lineup that has recently struggled to get on base against left-handed pitchers, posting a .299 wOBA against them over the past two weeks.
Mets vs. Braves pick, best bet
The pitching matchup heavily favors the Braves, with Sale in firm control, facing a Mets team unable to make consistent contact against left-handed pitchers. The Braves are 5-1 in their last six home games against the Mets, and they’ve won seven of their last eight matchups at Truist Park. The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games, and with Sale dominating, the trend is likely to continue.
The Braves are built to win this game with their sharp pitching and a solid offensive core against a Mets team grappling with injuries and inconsistent pitching. Atlanta also holds a 4.1% edge in team wOBA over the Mets this season, and their 85.2% contact rate is a key factor in getting to Blackburn. The Mets’ lineup has been hurt by the absences of Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, leaving a gaping hole in their offensive production. Their current .295 wOBA against left-handed pitchers suggests they’ll struggle further against Sale.
The total is set at 8.5, but this one’s likely to stay under. Sale’s control on the mound will suppress New York’s offensive chances, and while Atlanta can put up runs, they’re unlikely to explode with Blackburn on the mound. Given the pitching edge and the recent struggles of the Mets, though, I’m locking in a Braves -1.5 pick, especially with the value at +115. The Braves have all the pieces in place to cruise to a victory, covering the spread with ease. Their pitching is on point, and the Mets simply don’t have enough firepower to keep up.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+115) vs. Mets
Braves bury Blackburn—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
