The Oklahoma City Thunder have taken back control of the NBA Finals, holding a 3-2 series lead over the Indiana Pacers. Tyrese Haliburton’s injury uncertainty has further solidified the tough spot Indiana is in. Haliburton is considered a game-time decision for Game 6 after suffering a strained calf. His status will be one to monitor leading up to game time, but Rick Carlisle told reporters the team is preparing to play without him.
There was some notable line movement following this news, with the Thunder going from 5.5 to 6.5 points favorites and the Pacers’ odds to win growing from +164 to +210 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Thunder hold -258 odds of getting the outright victory in Game 5 with the game total set at 222.5.
While Haliburton’s status will shift the outlook in either direction, here are my top three prop bets for the potentially fatrful Game 6 matchup.
T.J. McConnell Over 15.5 Points & Assists (-110)
If Tyrese Haliburton is to miss, it would improve T.J. McConnell’s level of opportunity greatly, but he has made his impact felt even when this team is at full strength. The 33-year-old exploded in the third quarter of Game 5, desperately attempting to keep the Pacers within striking distance. McConnell finished the matchup with 18 points and four assists. He is averaging 11.2 points and 4.2 assists per game in the series.
Across the playoffs overall, McConnell is averaging 9.0 points and 4.0 assists. He has scored in double figures in 12 of the 21 games, including seven of the 10 at home. His scoring output has been 9.9 points per game at home and 8.3 on the road in the postseason. While Haliburton will surely give it a go if he is physically capable, there seems to be a legitimate concern that he may miss. Even if he can play, expect there to be some limitations in his movement. This will be problematic for a player who is reliant on his stop-and-start abilities to create separation, and so much of his game is built upon getting downhill and playmaking for others.
Expect McConnell to be looked at as the solution to this, and see a bump in minutes and on-ball opportunities. The 21:58 of game time he played in Game 5 was his second-most minutes in this playoff run and the most impactful he has been to this point. The scrappy Arizona product is incredibly effective at getting to his spots at the short mid-range and is fearless in every attack. Especially with Haliburton bothered by injury, McConnell will be responsible for pushing the pace and running Indiana’s transition offense. He has been a consistent point of production across this playoff run, and expect McConnell to leave it all on the floor with the home crowd behind him. Look for him to record over 15.5 combined points and assists and do everything possible to extend the playoff run.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (-140)
The rebounding battle was a significant point of concern coming into the series. With Oklahoma City being heavily committed to rebounding the basketball and having great success with the double big man lineup, there was fear that the Thunder would dominate the possession battle. But the Western Conference Champions have strayed away from this lineup combination for the majority of the time and opted to go small to match this Pacers team. Despite Indiana looking to be vulnerable in this area, they have held their own and even outrebounded the Thunder 56-39 in the Game 1 win.
Looking at Pascal Siakam, the Pacers forward is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game in this series and has tallied over 6.5 rebounds in three of the five games. The three-time All-Star averaged 6.9 rebounds per game across the regular season and 6.1 in the playoffs overall. The Pacers lean on a team-oriented attack of the glass, which will also be impacted by Haliburton’s health status. While this is not typically viewed as the most impactful area of his game, the Pacers’ guard is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game in these NBA Finals. Expect Siakam to make up for some of the slack with Haliburton missing or limited.
The Thunder have made it clear they prefer leaning on their small-ball lineups to match up in this series. Siakam has improved his rebounding output from 6.1 in the overall postseason to 7.4 in this series in correlation with this. Expect the matchups to remain the same and for Siakam to produce a necessary level of desperation as he looks to keep the team alive. Count on a strong commitment to the boards and for Siakam to pull in over 6.5 rebounds for the fourth time in this series.
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
Plenty of attention has been paid to the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein as the Thunder looked to solidify themselves as legitimate contenders last offseason. But there should be more praise given for the decision to trade Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, who has been a difference-maker all postseason. Caruso is averaging 9.6 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2.0 steals per game across the playoffs overall. He has seen his level of opportunity grow from 19.3 minutes per game in the regular season to 24.2 minutes per game in the postseason and has played 27 minutes or greater in every game in this series.
Caruso has shot 41.7% from beyond the three-point arc in the playoffs on 4.0 perimeter shots per game. He is a 37.6% three-point shooter throughout his career, but the Texas A&M product has shot over 40% in three of his eight seasons as a pro. Caruso got off to a strong start to this series, connecting with over 1.5 made three-pointers in two of the first three games. He has shot 8-for-19 (42.1%) from beyond the three-point arc in the series. Caruso is coming off a 0-for-3 perimeter shooting effort in Game 5 in which he shot a playoff-worst 1-for-8 from the field.
Expect a bounce-back performance with the series on the line and the Thunder having a chance to close things out. Caruso will continue to benefit from open looks as the defense prioritizes stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams’ attack on the rim, especially on the heels of the duo combining for 71 points in the previous game. Caruso has tallied 20 points twice in this series and has shot the ball well overall. Expect him to brush off the two-point and 1-for-8 shooting performance in Game 5 and knock down a pair of three-pointers as the Thunder put in their best effort to be crowned champions. He has answered the call at every stage of this playoff run, and expect Caruso to be ready to deliver the knockout punch with a pair of three-point makes.
