There is just one week until the NBA Draft, with the rumors and reports in full swing. Ace Bailey has been one of the most polarizing draft prospects in recent memory to both front offices and the general public.
Despite being discussed as a consensus top-three pick across the college season and most of the draft process, there has been some notable odds movement surrounding the Rutgers product’s future. Looking at DraftKings Sportsbook, Ace Bailey has been overtaken as the favorite to be selected with the third overall pick. With the Philadelphia 76ers in possession of the current draft pick, Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe holds -165 odds of being selected with the third overall pick, while Bailey has dropped to +300. Texas guard Tre Johnson also remains in the mix with +370 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Latest Ace Bailey Intel:
While the public has largely viewed Ace Bailey as the clear-cut selection for the third pick in this draft, the same consensus has not exactly been true in NBA circles. Bailey has all the tools to be one of the most talented players in this class. But his shot selection, struggles to get to the rim, and lack of playmaking make him a high variance prospect with a large gap between what his ceiling and floor as a player will be.
There were already some questions to be answered based on his on-court performance at Rutgers, but Bailey has not helped himself in the pre-draft process. A few eyebrow-raising quotes have made their rounds, and ESPN’s Jonathan Givoney reported Bailey has not conducted a single workout and has refused to visit several teams.
The Philadelphia 76ers being set to make the third overall pick also complicates the conversation. In most cases, teams drafting this high take the player they believe is the best long-term talent without much second thought. But the Sixers have $106.3 million committed to Joel Embiid and Paul George next season and are coming off a disastrous 24-58 season in which everything that could go wrong did go wrong. The stakes will be high next season with some big-picture questions bubbling to the surface, and the Sixers cannot afford to be as patient as other organizations would be with Bailey’s development.
There have also been plenty of rumors surrounding the Sixers’ interest in potentially trading the third overall pick. Daryl Morey is sure to explore every option, with reports of talks to move both up to the second pick or down in the draft having been made public. For what it is worth, Bailey is scheduled to work out in Philadelphia on Friday, and Sixers sources have refuted any rumors of previous refusal.
Outlook for V.J. Edgecombe:
If Bailey is falling down draft boards, then someone has to rise. V.J. Edgecombe has capitalized on this and was in a solid position to do so following an impressive one-and-done season at Baylor.
In the same ESPN report by Givoney, he considered Edgecombe the current “leader in the clubhouse” for the Sixers at the third pick. The athletic 6-foot-4 guard has already worked out for Philadelphia. He went out to dinner with several high-level members of the front office, and included Tyrese Maxey flying back into town to be in attendance.
While you can make the case for Bailey having a higher upside than Edgecombe, the Baylor product is closer to a finished product and has a more linear path to making a direct impact at the NBA level in the short term. A pugnacious defender who averaged 2.1 steals per game this season, Edgecombe will be one of the top athletes in the NBA from day one. He averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this season while shooting 34.0% from beyond the three-point arc. He has climbed to the -165 favorite after opening up with +140 odds on DraftKings to be selected third.
Will Ace Bailey’s Stock Rebound?
Smokescreen season is in full effect in the days leading up to the NBA Draft. It is important to keep in mind that plenty of the information that comes out is with a purpose, as teams take every effort to put themselves in a position to land their desired prospect.
With Cooper Flagg a lock to be the first overall pick and Dylan Harper already penciled in for the second selection, Ace Bailey will be the most interesting name on draft night. Momentum certainly feels as if it has shifted toward Edgecombe being selected by the Sixers with the third pick. But this all could change with an impressive workout or change in perception of the Rutgers product when he is in the building on Friday.
Philadelphia’s attempt to balance their win-now intentions and quiet youth movement led by Maxey and Jared McCain put them in a tough spot. Oddsmakers are buying into the skepticism surrounding Bailey to be more than just whispers, with Bailey moving to +300 odds of hearing his name called third after opening as the -120 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook.
