This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Bailey Falter is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh while Casey Mize should get the nod for Detroit.
Pirates at Tigers prediction, preview
Bailey Falter has a minuscule 15.4% strikeout rate, the fifth-lowest in MLB, and the ERA is a respectable 3.36. However, the FIP is higher at 4.1 and the BABIP is only .237. Falter has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, though, as he’s allowed seven home runs in 75 innings. The barrel rate is 7.1%.
Falter has reverse splits, as he’s been good against righties, limiting them to a slash of .196/.268/.328 with a .266 wOBA. Five of the seven home runs allowed have come from righties, though. Lefties are slashing .311/.358/.459 with a .356 wOBA. Falter has been much better at home than on the road.
Falter has had three bad starts this season: seven earned runs against the Yankees in his second start of the season, five earned runs against the Dodgers in late April and four earned runs against the Phillies two starts ago. Falter has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine starts, with five of those being shutouts. This will be the first time facing the Tigers this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Tigers have struck out at the 18th-highest rate while having the fifth-best ISO. The wOBA is third-best in MLB.
Casey Mize is posting a 21.4% strikeout rate, the first time above 20% in his career. The average fastball velocity is 94.8 mph and the swinging strike and chase rates are at career highs, 11% and 29.8%, respectively. The 2.95 ERA is not supported by the 4.07 FIP, though. The number that sticks out is the 87.2% strand rate. The control has been good, though, with only 18 free passes in 61 innings.
Mize also has reverse splits, as righties have been more successful against him this season. They are slashing .283/.333/.478 with six of nine home runs hit. He has also been better at home than on the road.
Mize has two starts allowing over three earned runs: four against the Twins in his third start of the season and four on May 1st against the Angels. In his four most recent starts, he’s allowed two, two, three and one earned run but hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in any contest. This will be the first time facing the Pirates this season.
The Pirates have struck out at the 10th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 30th in ISO. The wOBA is 19th-best.
As for bullpens, Pittsburgh has the 11th-lowest FIP while Detroit has the 18th-lowest.
Pirates at Tigers, Best Bet
I like the Tigers bats to knock Falter around in this one. In addition, Mize has been pitching well and gets to face one of the most inept offenses in MLB.
