The Yankees host the Angels in a clash of power against pitching at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are licking their wounds after a rough weekend against the Red Sox, while the Angels are reeling from a series loss to the Orioles. The stakes are high for both teams as they aim to bounce back, but the key to tonight’s matchup will be pitching—both teams are struggling with offense recently. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Yankees and the Angels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Angels prediction, preview
Clarke Schmidt gets the start for New York, and his numbers this season show promise. With a 3.60 ERA and 57 strikeouts through 55 innings, Schmidt has been effective at keeping hitters off balance. He ranks near the top in strikeout rate against right-handed batters, an advantage he’ll need against the strikeout-prone Angels. Los Angeles leads the league in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers, with a whopping 27% strikeout rate (highest in MLB) against them. Schmidt’s ability to make hitters chase should make him a formidable force tonight. His 32.2% CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs) and elite O-Swing rate (35.8%) have allowed him to avoid hard contact, and the Angels’ free-swinging approach plays into his hands.
On the other hand, José Soriano will start for the Angels. With a 3.86 ERA and a solid ground ball rate of 66.5%, Soriano is an effective pitcher, particularly in Yankee Stadium, where his groundball-heavy approach can neutralize the Yankees’ power-heavy lineup. Soriano ranks first among qualified starters in groundball rate against right-handed hitters (69%) this season, which is vital against a Yankees squad that relies on elevating the ball. The Yankees have a higher than league-average 37.4% flyball rate against right-handed pitchers, which plays into Soriano’s strength. Soriano’s ability to limit walks (just 11.4%) further plays into his favor, especially against a Yankees lineup that thrives on patience.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Yankees remain a potent team at home, ranking third in MLB in runs per game. However, they’ve had trouble getting things going with runners in scoring position recently, which could continue against Soriano’s efficient approach. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense has been inconsistent, failing to break through against even lesser competition like Baltimore. Their ability to score will depend heavily on their power hitters, Taylor Ward and Mike Trout, but the challenge against Schmidt’s disciplined pitching will be significant. The Angels rank 29th in MLB in walk rate (7.1%) and have posted a paltry .303 wOBA over the past two weeks, further cementing their struggle against right-handed pitchers with command, like Schmidt.
Angels vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Looking at betting trends, the Yankees are a solid favorite here, but the Angels have shown resilience in high-pressure situations. Still, the Angels’ recent slump, combined with Schmidt’s current form, makes it tough for them to produce enough runs to keep pace. The Yankees, despite their recent struggles, are better positioned to find success against Soriano, especially with their top-tier bullpen and Schmidt’s efficiency.
Given the pitching matchup, I’m leaning toward the under. With both teams struggling to score and two effective pitchers on the mound, we’re likely to see a low-scoring affair, particularly through the first five innings. Schmidt has been especially sharp in recent starts, and Soriano’s groundball-heavy approach should keep Yankee hitters from going deep.
The value here lies in the pitchers’ ability to control the game early, and the odds suggest this total is too high for two teams with slumping offenses. Schmidt’s command and Soriano’s groundball-heavy approach make it hard to see this one going over early. Keep your bets tight, and look for a quieter night in the Bronx.
So we’ll take the under F5.
Best bet: Yankees vs. Angels u4.5 total runs F5 (-120)
Ground balls galore tonight in the Bronx—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
