The Indiana Pacers were 12 minutes away from taking a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder. But the Thunder outscored their opponents 31-17 in the final period, led by a heroic individual effort from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to tie the series at two wins each. It is now down to a best-of-three series to crown the champion as the series returns to Oklahoma City tonight.
In a 2-2 series, 74% of teams that win Game 5 have gone on to win the Finals in NBA history. Indiana has proven to be a resident squad all season and will be looking to pick itself back up tonight to take back control. It is tough not to view the late-game loss as a massive missed opportunity in front of the home crowd, but you can never count this Pacers team fully out.
There are plenty of opportunities to get involved in the action this evening. One of the unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Basketball!
This article will look at my top Pick6 plays on Monday, June 16th. You simply choose whether each statistic will be more or less than the set number. With the stage set, here are my favorite picks for the Game 5 matchup between the Thunder and Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton Than 17.5 Points
There has been too much conversation regarding Tyrese Haliburton’s status as a star throughout this playoff run. He may not fit what most people picture as the face of a franchise, but you cannot dispute his impact, and he has made quite a few people eat their words during these playoffs.
Haliburton averaged 18.6 points per game in the regular season and is producing at the same rate in the postseason. He tallied more than 17.5 points in 39 of the 73 regular-season games and 11 of the 20 postseason games thus far. The Thunder have built an identity on the defensive end, but Indiana has managed to play at their pace for plenty of stretches in this series. Haliburton shook off an underwhelming start to the series in which he attempted just 13 field goals in each of the first two games. The two-time All-Star has now tallied more than 17.5 points in back-to-back games and has been more aggressive with the ball in his hands.
There will be plenty on the line in this Game 5 matchup, and expect Haliburton to be at the epicenter of the attack. The Pacers have not rolled over at any point during this playoff run and don’t expect anything different today. Haliburton has launched at least seven three-point attempts in all four games and gotten to the free-throw line just three total times despite attacking the rim at a greater rate as the series has progressed. He is averaging 17.8 points per game in the series, and his scoring has opened up more as Indiana has made an effort to get him off-ball for stretches to help create shot opportunities. Haliburton has not blinked at the big moment during this playoff run, and this will be the biggest game of his career to this point. Expect him to be ready to let it fly and fill his role within the offense by tallying more than 17.5 points for the third straight game.
Chet Holmgren More Than 9.5 Rebounds
Oklahoma City made a lineup change in the previous game by putting Isaiah Hartenstein back with the starters. But the prized offseason addition was still limited to just 21:14 of game action and finished with only two points and six rebounds. Coach Mark Daigneault has made it clear with his lineup decisions that he prefers to play small against Indiana, with Chet Holmgren serving as the full-time center as often as possible. Holmgren is coming off 37:11 of game action in the previous game and pulled in a series-high 15 rebounds.
Across the regular season, the Gonzaga product averaged 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Holmgren has seen these numbers grow to 15.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in this postseason, with his minutes increasing from 27.4 per night to 29.8 in the playoffs. Holmgren is coming off back-to-back games with 34+ minutes played and has tallied 10+ rebounds in each. The 23-year-old is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game in this series with 16.3 rebounding opportunities. Across the past two games, he is averaging 12.5 rebounds with 18.5 rebounding chances.
While it is understandable for Oklahoma City to go back to what got them here with the lineup changed, the results were not promising. Don’t be surprised if this is fully abandoned in Game 5, and for the Thunder to lean on Holmgren as the full-time center as often as possible. Indiana is a weak rebounding team across the board, and Myles Turner has especially struggled with just two rebounds in back-to-back games. Count on Holmgren continuing to make the most of his expanded opportunity by pulling in more than 9.5 rebounds for the third straight game.
Myles Turner More Than 1.5 Made Three-Pointers
It has not been a series to remember for Myles Turner. The two-time block champion is battling an illness and has been limited to 13.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per contest across the opening four games. He has shot just 17-for-43 (39.5%) from the field and 4-for-20 (20.0%) from beyond the three-point arc. But Indiana continues to show trust in their big man, with Turner coming off a series-high 30:28 of game time in the previous matchup.
Across the regular season, Turner averaged 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds while shooting 39.5% from beyond the three-point arc on 5.5 long-range shots per game. In the entire playoffs, he is averaging 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and shooting 35.4% on 4.1 long-range attempts per game. The Texas product averaged 2.2 made three-pointers per game in the regular season and has tallied more than 1.5 perimeter makes in six postseason games. He is coming off a 0-for-6 perimeter shooting performance in the previous game, which marked just the second time all postseason he did not make at least one three-pointer in a game.
While the shots are not falling, the looks have still been there for Turner. Indiana’s offense is dependent on his ability to space the floor to allow driving lanes, and don’t expect them to stray from this, even with the shooting slump. Turner has launched at least four three-pointers in all four matchups, and if he continues to see this type of volume, expect him to bounce back. He is too valuable to this Pacers team for them to stray fully away from using the big man, and he has a strong track record as a shooter. Turner has tallied more than 1.5 made three-pointers in 45 of the 72 regular-season games and still reached this total in one of these four matchups, even with the shooting struggles. Be confident in a bounce-back performance as Turner tallies more than 1.5 made three-pointers tonight.
Lu Dort Less Than 8.5 Points
The Indiana Pacers’ defensive unit has been wildly impressive to start this series, with this being one of the biggest surprises of the opening four games. They have made a clear focus to chase the Thunder off the three-point line and limit long-range attempts. In Game 4, Oklahoma City shot just 3-for-16 from beyond the three-point arc. This marked their fewest attempts and fewest three-point makes in any game this season. While this is an extreme example, this has been a strength of Indiana for a while. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have ranked third in opponent three-point attempts and fourth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Lu Dort is right at the top of the list for players most impacted by this, but he has been a bit of an outlier thus far. Across the opening four games, he has shot 11-for-18 (61.1%) from beyond the three-point arc. However, his volume has been more limited after shooting 5-for-9 on three-point attempts in Game 1. Dort was limited to 1-for-3 on three-point attempts in Game 2 and shot just 1-for-1 from deep in the previous game.
The All-Defensive First Team member has done a nice job improving as a shooter throughout his career, but is currently shooting above a realistic expectation in the series. Expect some regression to the mean as three-point looks continue to be difficult to come by. The Thunder have attempted just 38 total three-pointers in the past two games, making up 24.2% of their shot volume. 18 of Dort’s 23 shot attempts have been from beyond the three-point arc in this series, and his scoring outlook is almost entirely dependent on these perimeter looks. With the 8.5-point number still leaving a cushion for two made three-pointers, look for him to be held to less than 8.5 points for the third time in this series.
T.J. McConnell More Than 0.5 Steals
Few role players make as much of an impact in a limited amount of time as T.J. McConnell. The Arizona product plays with nonstop energy and is a defensive pest who will pick you up all 94 feet while being a threat to catch you napping on the inbounds pass at any point. McConnell became the first player in NBA playoff history to tally 10+ points, 5+ assists, and 5+ steals in just 15 minutes of play in Game 3.
Overall, McConnell is averaging 9.5 points, 4.3 assists, and 2.0 steals per game in this series and 8.6 points, 4.0 assists, and 0.7 steals per game in the playoffs. He has made a career as one of the more reliable backup point guards in the NBA, with his pick-six type of steals on the inbounds becoming a signature trait. McConnell tallied at least one steal in 55 of the 79 regular-season games and three of the four games so far in this series.
Indiana will need energy tonight and will count on McConnell to be one of the primary guys to supply it. His hands are constantly active, and he will not blink at any matchup he is asked to take on. With eight steals already in this series, expect McConnell to continue taking advantage of this youthful Thunder team and capitalize on any time they are lazy with the ball. He will surely have his sights set on generating turnovers throughout and count on the scrappy guard to produce at least one momentum-changing steal in the crucial Game 5 matchup.
Isaiah Hartenstein Less Than 15.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
While we discussed the encouraging outlook for Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein sits at the other end of this spectrum. He has been an excellent addition to this Thunder team overall. Oklahoma City likely would not have beaten Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets without the big man. But unfortunately, this is just not a matchup in which his skill set is overly beneficial.
Hartenstein has been limited to 22 minutes or fewer in all four games and is averaging 4.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game in the series (12.8 PRA). This is a steep drop after a regular season in which he averaged 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. He is also averaging 8.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in the playoffs overall. Myles Turner’s ability to space the floor takes away Hartenstein’s impact as a rim protector, and Indiana wants to play with an up-tempo pace as often as possible. The attempt to insert him back into the starting lineup in the previous game should be viewed as a failure, and it would not be a surprise if Hartenstein sees the fewest minutes he has all season tonight.
Count on Hartenstein’s level of opportunity being limited and for him not to have enough minutes to reach this statistical total. His output has not been reliable enough when he has been on the floor in his shrinking role, and Oklahoma City clearly prefers to operate with the smaller lineup. Count on Hartenstein being held to less than 15.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists for the fourth straight game and fail to be an impact player in tonight’s game once again.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
