There are three games of WNBA action today, building out to a final matchup between the Phoenix Mercury (7-4) and Las Vegas Aces (5-4). This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season, and both teams enter coming off a win in the previous game.
The Phoenix Mercury enter as 4.5-point favorites at -198 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces hold +164 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 164.5.
Mercury vs. Aces preview
The Phoenix Mercury enters with a 7-4 record and is fifth in net rating at +2.0 on the season. They average 79.9 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Phoenix attempts 29.5 perimeter shots per game and is connecting at a 33.2% rate. Defensively, the Mercury are holding opponents to 78.3 points per game, which is the fifth-best rate. They rank fourth in defensive rating and generate the third-most steals in the WNBA.
Satou Sabally headlines the production for the Mercury in her first season with the team. The two-time All-Star is averaging 20.5 points per game, which ranks fifth in the WNBA, while adding 7.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.6 steals. Alyssa Thomas is the only other player averaging in double figures with 14.5 points, 8.3 assists, and 6.7 rebounds per game. Thomas was sidelined since May 27th with a calf injury, but made her return this week and picked up right where she left off with an 11-point and 10-assist performance in Wednesday’s victory over the Dallas Wings. Kahleah Copper is also set to make her season debut today. The four-time All-Star will provide a necessary punch for this Mercury team after averaging 21.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game last season.
The Las Vegas Aces hold a record of 5-4 on the season. They rank eighth in the league with a -1.9 net rating and are sixth in scoring with 82.0 points per game. Las Vegas turns the ball over the fewest times per game and also fouls at the second-lowest rate. They attempt the fifth-fewest three-point attempts per game and rank sixth in perimeter efficiency. Defensively, they limit opponents to 83.9 points per game, which is the fifth-worst rate in the WNBA. They are producing the fifth-worst defensive rating but allow the fewest points in the paint. Las Vegas’ 46.7% rebounding rate is the second-worst rate in the league.
Injuries will be a factor for the Aces tonight as A’ja Wilson will miss her second straight game while in concussion protocol. The three-time MVP is averaging 20.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.6 blocks, and 2.0 steals per game on the season, leaving plenty of production to make up for. Jackie Young is the next-best scorer, averaging 19.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. Chelsea Gray adds 14.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting a team-best 42.6% from beyond the three-point arc. Jewell Lloyd is also a key part of the production with 10.4 points and 4.0 rebounds while also shooting 41.2% from beyond the three-point arc.
Mercury vs. Aces prediction, pick
The Aces managed to produce an 88-84 victory over the Dallas Wings in their first game without A’ja Wilson, but expect different results tonight at the Mercury. A win is a win, but the Mercury entered the fourth quarter trailing six points, and it felt more like a Wings collapse than a Mercury win. Phoenix is set to get Kahleah Copper back on the floor tonight, and it will be the first time all season they will be at just about full strength. Their 7-4 record is respectable in itself, but expect Phoenix to grow into one of the true contenders as they find their full form.
Los Angeles is 5-4 on the year but 3-6 against the spread. Three of their five wins have also come against the bottom three teams in the league. They are 1-3 at home this season and 0-2 this week. The Aces may be the better team at full strength, but this will not be the case today without Wilson on the floor.
Expect there to be some increased energy with this Mercury team as Copper makes her season debut. Phoenix now has the scoring punch to take full control of this game, and Las Vegas will struggle to stick with them without Wilson. Expect Phoenix to attack the glass at a high rate and have success controlling the rebounding battle. Six of their seven wins have been by five points or greater, and expect the Mercury to take control of tonight’s game by getting the win and covering the spread.
