The first dominoes of the NBA offseason have started to fall. ESPN’s Shams Charania woke up the NBA world with the news that the Orlando Magic have traded for Desmond Bane in exchange for a package centered around four unprotected first-round picks. With rumors continually shifting surrounding even bigger fish like Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, this is the first market-setting move to take place.
How Does the Desmond Bane Trade Impact Kevin Durant’s Market?
Without sugarcoating it, four unprotected first-round picks and a future pick swap is a lot to give up for Desmond Bane. The 26-year-old is a clean fit for what the Magic need, and getting high-level floor spacing was such a clear need for Orlando. With the Eastern Conference wide open, you can understand why the Magic are taking this type of swing.
But also expect the rest of the NBA to take note of this as trade season heats up. There was a similar reaction last offseason when the Knicks gave up four unprotected first-round picks, a second-round pick and a first-round pick swap to bring in Mikal Bridges. The same happened when the Timberwolves traded a monstrous four first-round picks and a pick swap for Rudy Gobert in 2022. Teams will constantly be using other trades as a measuring stick in their negotiations, and the Grizzlies and Magic have set this year’s beginning standard.
All first-round picks are not created equal, and the assumption that the Magic will be in the playoff mix for the foreseeable future is likely a driving force behind why it took so many to get this deal done. However, be sure that the rest of the league, and the Phoenix Suns in particular, will take note of this large return.
Looking at Kevin Durant’s situation, many have expected him to be the first notable deal to shake up the offseason. Phoenix has already traded out plenty of draft capital in future years and is working with a sense of urgency so it can have time to understand its draft pick outlook ahead of this year’s draft. News broke last night from Charania that Durant’s preferred list of teams has been narrowed down to the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets. The 15-time All-Star is on an expiring $54.7 million contract heading into next season, so expect this to be a factor in the equation for how much teams are willing to give up.
The conversation surrounding draft picks is also a massive advantage for the Houston Rockets when discussing Durant’s landing spots. Not only are they loaded with young, talented prospects that Phoenix should desire, the Rockets hold the 10th pick in this year’s draft, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 pick swap that each originally belonged to Phoenix. The Suns emptied their cabinet of draft capital to make an all-in push with the trio of Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, but that strategy has not produced the desired results. It was widely reported at the time that Houston’s trade for Phoenix’s picks was motivated by creating a path to Durant, even if plenty of the situation for both teams has changed since that time.
For a Suns organization that has an uncertain future, regaining possession of its own draft picks would be a reassuring feeling. The Suns have been public in wanting to remain in win-now mode, but the West continues to improve around them, and the current roster construction they have has not worked. Taking the steps to get control of your picks in case the bottom does fall out on this Phoenix franchise is far from the worst plan.
One key differentiating factor in the value of the Bane trade versus the outlook for Durant is contract length. The former Grizzlies guard signed a five-year, $197.2 million contract last offseason and still has four years of team control remaining on this deal. In contrast, Durant has just one year remaining and will be a free agent following next season. Bane is also just 26 years old compared to Durant, who is set to enter his age-37 season.
While Phoenix has been clear it will operate with what is best for the franchise and not blindly follow Durant’s desires, the future control the two-time champion has will give some organizations pause. In theory, a dark-horse team could arise out of nowhere to produce the best offer and trade for Durant. But with the future Hall-of-Famer able to walk at the season’s conclusion, not every organization will be willing to take this risk. The Toronto Raptors took the big swing back in the 2018-19 season when Kawhi Leonard was in a similar situation. In some ways, this was a huge success as the Raptors went on to win the NBA Championship that season, largely on the back of an excellent postseason run by Leonard. But the star then took his talents to Los Angeles in the offseason, leaving Toronto without the star and all the assets it gave up to get him.
The NBA trade market value has been established, but the situation Durant finds himself in compared to Bane is largely different. Looking at the current odds for the Durant deal:
Despite not being listed in Durant’s desired landing spots, the Minnesota Timberwolves are currently the favorites at +160 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat, Rockets and Spurs, or Durant’s three preferences, round out the next three favorites.
Expect the trade rumors to continue heating up with Phoenix operating with some urgency. These odds are subject to change at a rapid rate, and the offseason is heating up in a major way. With the June 25th NBA Draft date on the horizon, expect plenty of new rumors and reports to continue flying in the coming days.
