The rivalry between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox doesn’t feel like what it used to be. They haven’t been elite at the same time as the way it was in the 2000s. But don’t tell the players that. Boston has pulled out back-to-back one-run victories to claim the series and pull back to .500
Boston certainly wanted to be in a better position. Playing mediocre baseball wasn’t what it intended after acquiring Garrett Crochet in a massive trade and signing Alex Bregman. But there’s a lot of baseball left to be played, and they’re 7.5 games behind their rivals. Much larger holes have been dug out of.
Despite owning the second-best record in the AL, the Yankees feel like they have questions to answer. The main problem is: who else can provide elite offense besides Aaron Judge? Having Barry Bonds reincarnate is great for the Bronx Bombers, but they have made a lot of moves to boost this lineup. With the pitching staff taking a massive step forward, they’ll need to find more answers on offense if they hope for a repeat AL pennant.
The New York Yankees are favored at -194 on the Moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Let’s preview this contest and make a prediction.
Yankees at Red Sox prediction, preview
New York has a huge pitching advantage in this one. They took a risk by handing Max Fried the fourth-largest pitcher contract in history at eight years and $218 million. It’s paying off in the early going as the left-hander has a 1.84 ERA through 14 starts. His electric fastball has produced the most four-seam run value of any pitcher in the big leagues per Baseball Savant.
Things have been quite the opposite for Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. His 5.25 xERA is a 12th percentile mark amongst all starting pitchers. He’s a contact pitcher playing in a small ballpark who can’t miss bats when needed or induce chases. Being reliant on batters making weak contact on balls in the zone is a tightrope he’s not balancing on. Bello’s expected batting average this season is .293, seventh percentile amongst all pitchers.
All of this adds up to the Yankees being huge favorites. I’m backing the Yanks in this one. Fried can stop the skid in this series, and their lineup (especially Judge) should tee off on Bello. Let’s dig into my favorite pick for this contest.
Yankees at Red Sox pick
New York Yankees Over 2.5 Runs In First 5 Innings (-110)
This is not a good matchup for Brayan Bello. Not only is he struggling this season, but this Yankees lineup is due for an explosion in this series. Having been held to just four runs through two games, the bill is due for the Red Sox pitching staff sooner or later.
If anyone other than Judge can start pulling their weight, Bello will hit the showers sooner than expected. Heck, Judge alone could end his night prematurely. He’s just that good.
Aaron Judge First Plate Appearance Exact Result: Home Run (+1300)
In the first inning this season, Aaron Judge is 27-for-59 (.458) with 10 (!!!!) home runs. He enjoys terrorizing opposing starters from the jump. And he’s more than due against Bello.
The MVP is 2-for-14 in his career against the Red Sox starter. With most batters, I’d be inclined to believe that the pitcher has an advantage over the batter. I refuse to believe anyone has an advantage over Judge right now. With Bello pounding the zone, looking to induce contact, I think we’ll get an All Rise moment in the top of the first inning.
