Last night saw another epic chapter added to the greatest rivalry in baseball, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Although Boston won, it took ten innings thanks to none other than Aaron Judge. New York’s captain launched a game-tying homer in the ninth inning off of ace Garrett Crochet. It’s yet another spectacular moment in a season full of them for the greatest hitter on Earth. Ahead of another AL East showdown, what should we expect from Judge on Saturday?
Tonight, the Yankees are heavy favorites (-181) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Before the start of Saturday’s matchup, here’s my favorite Aaron Judge player prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aaron Judge O 1.5 total bases (-140)
As previously mentioned, this has been a year to remember for Aaron Judge. That’s saying a lot, considering the two-time MVP is the single-season American League home run leader. Regardless, the slugger is on pace for the best campaign of his ten-year career. Over 68 games, the outfielder is slashing .390/.485/.780 with a league-leading 26 home runs and 60 RBIs at the plate. It helps to have lineup protection, as the Yankees are scoring the third-most runs per game in baseball (5.40).
Last night aside, a trip to Boston hasn’t always been the most enticing matchup for Judge. Over 25 outings at Fenway Park since 2021, the six-time All-Star has only hit .251 with nine homers. Those aren’t bad numbers for most players, but Aaron Judge isn’t most players. With that being said, #99 has had recent success against tonight’s pitcher, Hunter Dobbins. When the right-hander pitched in the Bronx last Sunday, Judge launched a first-inning, two-run dinger. The superstar went on to collect three hits, four RBIs and another homer in that contest.
The issue when betting on Judge is that the price on most props are sky-high (for good reason). Still, the big man almost always finds a way to deliver. The most intriguing play tonight appears to be total bases. Judge has notched at least two bags in seven of his previous nine games played. In addition, he’s reached this number in 45 of his 68 appearances this season (66.2%). All that’s needed is one big hit tonight against Dobbins, a pitcher we saw Judge take deep less than a week ago. Even at -140, I’m liking those odds.
