The Indiana Pacers have jumped out to a 2-1 series lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder and are just two wins away from their first NBA title in franchise history. While Game 1 could be brushed off as a fluke, there was nothing fake about the Game 3 win. Aaron Nesmith and company will now be looking to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with the Indiana crowd behind them again tonight.
Oddsmakers have continually backed Oklahoma City in this series, which remains the case tonight. The Thunder entered the series as -700 favorites to win the NBA Finals. Even while trailing 2-1 in the series, Oklahoma City still holds -220 odds of winning the series on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Looking at the Game 4 odds, the Thunder enter as six-point favorites at -230 on the Moneyline. The Pacers hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 227. This ties the largest home underdog mark in the past 25 years of NBA Finals history. The last team to be this notable of a home underdog was Reggie Miller’s Pacers team back in the 2000 Finals against the Lakers in Game 5. For what it is worth, Indiana blew out Los Angeles 120-87 in that matchup.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Aaron Nesmith prop bets for the Game 4 matchup.
Best Aaron Nesmith Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Nesmith’s props are listed at over/under 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 2.5 made three-pointers, and 17.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Aaron Nesmith Over 4.5 Rebounds (-135)
Rebounding is not the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of Aaron Nesmith but the Vanderbilt product has made a nice impact on the glass, pulling in 12 rebounds in Game 1. He tallied four rebounds in Game 2 and was limited to just two boards in the previous game, but battled foul trouble throughout and fouled out after just 22:06 of game time.
Across the regular season, Nesmith averaged 4.0 rebounds per game and tallied over 4.5 rebounds in 19 of the 45 games. His rebounding output has grown to 5.6 per game in the postseason and Nesmith has tallied over 4.5 rebounds in 10 of the 19 games. Standing 6-foot-6 and willing to get physical, Nesmith has done a nice job attacking the glass with increased intensity throughout.
The rebounding battle was a huge storyline entering the series with Indiana looking vulnerable in this area while Oklahoma City has been strong all season. However, the Thunder have abandoned their double-big lineup with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein sharing the floor for just five minutes to this point. With Nesmith battling foul trouble, it was Tyrese Haliburton who led the Pacers with nine rebounds in the previous game. Indiana has seemingly employed the game plan of having their big men put bodies on the Thunder players attacking the glass and allowing their guards to clean it up. As long as Nesmith avoids foul trouble, he should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on these efforts. Look for him to get back on track in Game 3 and tally over 4.5 rebounds for the 11th time in this playoff run and the second time in this series.
Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+140)
He has done a nice job rounding out his game, but at his core, Aaron Nesmith is a three-point flamethrower. Perhaps the best evidence of this was his effort in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Knicks, in which he connected with five three-pointers in the final 3:14 of game action to give the Pacers a chance at a comeback victory. Nesmith shot 8-for-9 from behind the three-point arc in the matchup, and Indiana was successful in pulling off the overtime win.
Across the regular season, Nesmith shot 43.1% from beyond the three-point arc on 4.3 perimeter shots per game. He has shot 49.5% from the perimeter across the postseason, with his shot volume growing to 5.4 three-point attempts per matchup. He has connected with at least one three-pointer in every game this postseason and tallied over 2.5 made three-pointers in eight games. Through the opening three games of the Finals, Nesmith has shot 8-for-17 (47.1%) from beyond the three-point arc and connected with three or more three-pointers in two of three outings. He was limited to 1-for-2 shooting from the perimeter in the previous game, with foul trouble a key factor in this. Count on him getting back to a perimeter output of seven and eight three-point attempts which he tallied in the opening two games of the series.
Nesmith has historically shot better at home, connecting on 39.7% of his three-point attempts at home compared to 37.1% on the road throughout his career. This was not the case this season, with the 25-year-old shooting 45.1% on the road compared to 41.6% at him, but both these numbers are ones to feel great about.
Indiana had success in the previous game with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Bennedict Mathurin leading the offensive charge. The two teams combined for just 49 three-point attempts total in the Game 3 matchup, which is incredibly low volume in today’s NBA. Expect some adjustments to be made by the Thunder defense and for the Pacers to lean on their three-point production at a greater rate. Count on Nesmith being at the epicenter of this and connecting with over 2.5 made three-pointers for the third time in this NBA Finals series.
