The Indiana Pacers made a statement with their Game 3 victory to take a 2-1 series advantage over the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Game 1 could be brushed off as a bit of a fluke, there was nothing fake about the Game 3 victory in which the Thunder were uncharacteristically rattled.
Teams that have won Game 3 of a 1-1 NBA Finals have gone on to win 80.5% of the time across the past 41 series. However, oddsmakers have continually backed the Thunder, and the Pacers will enter tonight’s game tied for the biggest home underdog of an NBA Finals game in the past 25 years. They will be matching the 2000 NBA Finals in which Reggie Miller’s Pacers were underdogs in Game 5 before they went on to blow out the Lakers 120-87. Oklahoma City will be hoping for a different result tonight as they look down the barrel of a 3-1 series deficit before traveling back home.
There are plenty of opportunities to get involved in the action this evening. One of the unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Basketball!
This article will look at my top Pick6 plays on Friday, June 13th. You simply choose whether each statistic will be more or less than the set number. With the stage set, here are my favorite picks for the Game 4 matchup between the Thunder and Pacers.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Less Than 46.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists
The Indiana Pacers employed their most effective attack on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 3. They limited the NBA MVP to 24 points, eight rebounds, and four assists, or 36 combined PRA. Beyond just this one game sample size, this is a high number that Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled to hit consistently throughout this playoff run.
Across the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.7 rebounds, or 42.4 PRA. He has been held to less than 46.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 13 of the 19 playoff games and six of the eight road games. Across the opening three matchups in this series, the reigning scoring champion is averaging 32.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. He has been held to less than 46.5 combined points, rebounds and assists in two of the three games. His impact has also not felt as large as these numbers would suggest. During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged fewer points, rebounds and assists on the road despite playing more minutes.
Indiana showed an increased willingness to blitz Gilgeous-Alexander and throw multiple defenders at the superstar in Game 3. They also attacked him defensively as often as possible, which took a toll on his energy level as the game progressed. Gilgeous-Alexander was considered the closest defender on 23 of the Pacers’ shot attempts, which is the highest mark he has logged all season. The Thunder will need Gilgeous-Alexander to step up, and he surely will still have his flashes in the matchup. But 46.5 combined points, rebounds and assists is a high bar to clear that he has fallen short of too consistently. Expect Indiana to operate with the primary focus of slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, and for the Thunder star to fail to reach this number for the third time in the series and 14th time across these playoffs.
Andrew Nembhard More Than 0.5 Made Three-Pointers
Andrew Nembhard is quickly earning the “playoff riser” label as he has increased his scoring output and efficiency splits in back-to-back playoff runs. His ability to serve as a primary ball-handler and his skill to take opponents off the dribble are necessary to complement Tyrese Haliburton and open up the full context of this Indiana offense. The Pacers have utilized Haliburton off-ball for stretches to combat Oklahoma City’s strong perimeter defense, which has been effective.
Across the regular season, Nembhard averaged 10.0 points per game and shot a career-worst 29.1% from beyond the three-point arc. His shooting touch has returned in the postseason, with the Gonzaga product knocking down 45.8% of his perimeter shots. Nembhard has made at least one three-pointer in all three games in this series in 16 of the 19 postseason games. He has also connected on more than 1.5 made three-pointers in 10 of the 19 games. Nemhard shot 2-for-6 on three-pointers in Game 1 of this series before being limited to 1-for-4 and 1-for-2 from the perimeter in the previous two games.
Heading into Game 4, expect the Pacers to do a better job creating shots for their starting guard. Nembhard was limited to just five shot attempts in Game 3, which marks the fewest of his playoff career and nearly half of what he is averaging across these playoffs. Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Bennedict Mathurin stepped into the center stage of the offensive attack, and this proved effective. Expect Oklahoma City to have some adjustments prepared and for Nembhard to be eagerly waiting to scale up his offensive role as a counter. While he is plenty capable as a shooter of the catch as well, the Canadian standout can generate his own three-point looks in a way that is necessary to this Pacers team. Nembhard has a strong track record for hitting at least one three-pointer in a game across this playoff run, and look for him to extend this for the fourth straight game in the series tonight.
Obi Toppin More Than 14.5 Points & Rebounds
The Indiana Pacers have a deep bench with several different players capable of stepping up on any given night. Bennedict Mathurin exploded for 27 points in Game 3 while T.J. McConnell asserted himself and made several effort plays that shifted the momentum of the game. Obi Toppin is also in this mix and has had a nice series to this point. The Dayton product dropped 17 points on five made three-pointers in Game 1 and is averaging 9.2 points and 5.3 rebounds across the opening three games.
During the regular season, Toppin averaged 10.5 points and 4.0 rebounds in his 19.6 minutes per night. He has played 25+ minutes in two of the three games in this series and is coming off a playoff career-high 27:48 of game action on Wednesday. He finished a game-high +18 in the victory. Oklahoma City is loaded with size and athleticism, which has made Toppin more valuable in the matchup. Myles Turner continues to battle an illness, which could pave the way for additional minutes or at least keep his level of opportunity high. Both these teams play with a high pace and score a ton of points, which also plays to Toppin’s strengths.
Toppin attempted field goal outputs of nine, eight, and eight in these playoff games and pulled in 16 total rebounds. As long as this level of opportunity remains high, believe in the stats to follow. Toppin is a good enough shooter to punish the Thunder when he is left wide open and is a terror every time he gets out in transition. Count on him making his impact felt throughout this matchup as a scorer and on the glass as he tallies more than 14.5 combined points and rebounds tonight.
Isaiah Hartenstein More Than 15.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
The Oklahoma City Thunder went out and added Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency this past summer in what they hoped would be a finishing touch to their championship team. Now just three wins away from achieving this, they have strayed from what worked. Hartenstein has shared the floor with Chet Holmgren for just five minutes across the opening three games, and the Thunder have produced a +5.7 net rating across this time. Oklahoma City has gone small at a more regular rate to combat the Pacers’ style, but they now sit in a 2-1 series hole, and it is time to make some changes.
Across the regular season, Hartenstein averaged 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per contest. He is still averaging 8.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game across this playoff run despite his minutes being scaled back. Indiana outrebounded Oklahoma City 56-39 in Game 1 and greatly felt the effects of going small. While the matchup is a fair reason for the decision, the Thunder should look themselves in the mirror for what works for them as a team and expect this to involve an expanded role for Hartenstein tonight.
Through the opening three games, the Thunder’s big man is playing 19.0 minutes per night and averaging 5.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. He has tallied combined points, rebounds, and assist totals of 18, 15, and seven across the first three games. This is the most obvious adjustment the Thunder can make and one I think they will give a more extensive try. Hartenstein still tallied more than 15.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists once, even with the limited minutes, and he will be the best rebounder on the floor every time he is out there. It would not shock me if he sees the largest level of opportunity on the floor by a notable margin tonight and comfortably clears this total. I am backing him to record more than 15.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in Game 4.
Tyrese Haliburton More Than 8.5 Assists
The Pacers have plenty of depth and numerous guys who can step up on any given night. But Indiana will still only go as far as Tyrese Haliburton will take them, and the results have been encouraging in this series. Haliburton will never be the player launching 40 shots in a game, the way some hope he would fill this style of superstar shoes. But he impacts the game in a variety of ways and constantly finds ways to influence winning. At his core, playmaking is still Haliburton’s greatest strength.
The two-time All-Star averaged 18.6 points and 9.2 assists per game across the regular season. Since the postseason started, his numbers have shifted to 18.6 points and an NBA-best 9.4 assists per game. He has tallied more than 8.5 assists in 11 of the 19 playoff games thus far. After being limited to six assists in the opening two games of the postseason, Haliburton tallied 11 assists in Game 3. He looked the most comfortable he has all series, and expect this to translate to Game 4.
Indiana has embraced a team style of basketball with Haliburton as the clear face. They also have yet to reach their peak in transition production in this series, with this being a spot where Haliburton is especially effective. Oklahoma City is loaded with physical perimeter defenders, but Indiana has made some nice adjustments to allow Haliburton to continue serving as the primary playmaker. Expect this to continue being the case and for Haliburton to show out in front of the home crowd with more than 8.5 assists again tonight.
Pascal Siakam More Than 6.5 Rebounds
The rebounding battle was a significant concern coming into this series from Indiana’s perspective. Through three games, this has not proven problematic with the Pacers holding the most dominant rebounding margin across the three games thus far during the Game 1 win. Oklahoma City’s decision to stray away from their double-big lineup is the clear reason why, but the Pacers have weathered the storm to this point. This is especially impressive considering Myles Turner has tallied just six total rebounds across the past two games.
Enter Pascal Siakam, who is coming off his best scoring game of this series with 21 points in the previous matchup. Through the opening three games, he is averaging 18.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. This comes after a regular season in which Siakam averaged 20.2 points and 6.9 rebounds and an overall playoffs in which he is averaging 20.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Across the opening three games in this series, he has produced rebounding outputs of 10, seven, and six.
If the Thunder elect to expand Hartenstein’s minutes, it adds an interesting twist, but Siakam will need to scale up his rebounding regardless. It is not sustainable for Tyrese Haliburton to be the team’s leading rebounder, as was the case in the previous victory. Siakam produced rebounding outputs of nine and 10 in the two regular-season games against the Thunder and has tallied more than 6.5 rebounds in two of the three games thus far in the series. Look for him to improve off the six rebounds he tallied in Game 3 and have a pathway to being the Pacers’ leading rebounder tonight.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
