The Oklahoma City Thunder have been here before, trailing 2-1 to an underestimated opponent in a playoff series and staring down a must-win road game. The Denver Nuggets took a 2-1 lead in the second round, and Oklahoma City gritted out a nail-biting win in Game 4 after Denver suffered some fourth-quarter shooting woes. The Thunder will face an opponent tonight in the Indiana Pacers who surely won’t wilt in the fourth quarter.
For MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and, by point differential, the greatest team in NBA history, the season comes down to these 48 minutes tonight. Indiana doesn’t need a win as badly, but having stolen home-court advantage, the Pacers surely aren’t in a rush to give it back. The game will tip at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma City is a six-point favorite (-238 Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Thunder, for now, are still -220 to win the series, but that would obviously change if Indiana takes a 3-1 lead. I’ve built my favorite same game parlay to help you get excited for tonight.
Best Same Game Parlay for Thunder at Pacers Game 4
Indiana Pacers Moneyline
Generally speaking, I see this game going one of two ways: either the Pacers are going to win this game, or it’s going to be a blowout in favor of Oklahoma City. Indiana is 9-1 in the clutch these playoffs with a ridiculous plus-45.7 net rating, so if the game is at all close, I’d be surprised if the Thunder — who have a negative-2.5 net rating in the clutch — end up pulling it out. Oklahoma City has already had one blowout this series, when it built and maintained a steady lead in Game 2, and I think this Pacers team is just too good to be routed twice. Rick Carlisle has out-coached Mark Daigneault so far, and that’s critical in crunch time.
To be fair, there are several reasons to believe that Indiana’s Game 3 performance was unsustainable. Bennedict Mathurin probably isn’t going to drop 27 points in 22 minutes again, like he did on Wednesday. T.J. McConnell won’t nab five steals, including three off of inbounds passes, as the Thunder were uncharacteristically sloppy. But the Pacers didn’t play the perfect game: they shot just nine-for-27 from beyond the arc, Andrew Nembhard had as many combined turnovers and fouls as he did points, and Tyrese Haliburton failed to get to the charity stripe for the third straight contest. Likewise, Oklahoma City wasn’t completely awful, shooting 45.5% from deep, out-rebounding Indiana, and getting 20-point games from Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. The chasm between these teams isn’t huge, and the Pacers have momentum on their side.
Bennedict Mathurin 12+ Points
After effectively winning Game 3 for Indiana, Mathurin could easily slow down, as he’s put up nine single-digit scoring performances these playoffs. Still, he has some margin for error to drop from his 27 points to a more modest 12, and given that he’s scored 12 or more in four of his last six games, it wouldn’t be all that surprising. The Thunder are certainly going to try to make some sort of adjustment to keep Mathurin from getting the ball off of cuts, since he’s been the most efficient cutter so far these playoffs, but whatever strategies Oklahoma City had to slow him down in Game 3 weren’t working; he has been effective off the catch and off the dribble and against either Williams or Alex Caruso. Only Aaron Wiggins has had much of an impact against him so far.
The Pacers’ egalitarian system relies on ball movement, and with his dives to the rim, Mathurin can operate within those confines. But he’s also somewhat of a threat off the dribble, thanks to his ability to score at all three levels — so far these playoffs, he’s made two-thirds of his shots in the restricted area, half of his shots from the midrange, and 31.8% of his triples — and though he has been the least efficient qualified isolation player in the postseason, he’s capable enough of hitting contested shots that the Thunder have to respect him.
Alex Caruso O1.5 Steals
So far these playoffs, Oklahoma City has been 4.6 points per 100 possessions better with Caruso on the court than off of it, and he’s made a huge impact already in the Finals, even if he was a minus-15 in Game 3. He was an all-around defensive game-wrecker in Game 1, recording three steals and two blocks, and he grabbed another two steals on Wednesday. Indiana’s movement wore down both Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander by the fourth quarter, which is why Caruso’s minutes are critical — on defense, he has the core and leg strength to fight through screens and close out hard in a way that Holmgren lacks, and on offense, he has enough playmaking chops that he can take some pressure off of Gilgeous-Alexander.
He’ll need to play at least 24 minutes for the Thunder to have a chance tonight, and in the 11 games these playoffs that he has been on the floor for at least half the game, he has nabbed two or more steals nine times. He wasn’t anywhere near perfect in Game 3 — Mathurin cut back-door on him a few times — but it’s not a coincidence that Haliburton has had the most turnover-prone playoff series of his career. Caruso has only guarded Haliburton for 29.1 partial possessions — fewer than Cason Wallace or Luguentz Dort — but he has already forced five turnovers. There are many adjustments that Daigneault could make to get his team a win tonight, but decreasing Caruso’s minutes isn’t one of them.
