In tonight’s matchup between the Padres and Diamondbacks, we’ve got two teams on opposite sides of the spectrum. Arizona comes in red-hot, having just swept the Mariners with offensive fireworks, while San Diego is still reeling from a bitter loss to the Dodgers to end a heated NL West series. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Diamondbacks and the Padres.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, preview
San Diego’s offense has sputtered but has enough firepower to exploit a shaky Diamondbacks pitching staff. Despite ranking just 19th in runs scored (4.16 per game), the Padres’ approach has been more effective on the road. Their lineup is led by Manny Machado, who has been lighting it up lately with seven home runs in the last three weeks, and Jackson Merrill, who has hit well against Ryne Nelson in the past. Tatis Jr. hasn’t been at his best, but with his upside, he remains a threat in this spot. Moreover, Gavin Sheets has been hitting well against right-handed pitchers, which bodes well against Nelson.
Ryne Nelson, who’s been inconsistent this season, will start for Arizona. While he’s managed a 2.67 ERA at home, he was crushed for seven earned runs in his last outing, which puts his performance into question. Nelson’s strikeout rate has been below average, and he’s given up a fair share of long balls (0.80 HR/9), which is concerning against a Padres lineup that has shown the ability to strike when the opportunity arises. He’s a contact pitcher, which could work into the Padres’ hands, particularly with their high-contact rate (third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB).
On the mound for the Padres is Stephen Kolek, whose performance has been outstanding recently. With a 0.85 ERA in five road starts this season, Kolek has been nearly unhittable away from home. He has a solid 3.00 ERA for the season and has kept his walks in check (9.2% BB rate). Kolek won’t blow anyone away with strikeouts (16.8% K rate), but he has consistently limited damage, a critical factor against an Arizona team that has been prone to swinging for the fences. The Padres’ bullpen, which ranks among the best in the league with a 3.44 ERA, also provides a significant advantage over Arizona’s shaky pen, which has posted a 5.51 ERA at home.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Despite Arizona’s offensive firepower—ranking fourth in MLB in runs and third in slugging—there are serious concerns about their pitching staff. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen and starting rotation (25th in ERA, 27th in WHIP) will have a tough time withstanding the pressure from a Padres team that has proven it can produce on the road. Arizona’s key hitters like Corbin Carroll, who’s been on a tear, and Josh Naylor, who’s batting .302 with 45 RBIs, will certainly make their presence known, but they can’t carry a pitching staff that has failed to hold leads consistently.
With the Padres’ superior pitching, better bullpen, and road success, the value is with San Diego here. Arizona’s lineup can explode, but the Padres’ bullpen is more than capable of keeping this game close late. Given the pitching mismatch and the Padres’ success at Chase Field in recent seasons, I’m backing San Diego to come through in this one.
Best bet: Padres (+110) at Diamondbacks
We’re all in on SD’s bullpen—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
