Only one team out of 38 has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals, so we should expect plenty of Thunder, lightning and tornadoes caused by the OKC players flying around the court. That said, the Pacers have been one of the best teams at remaining poised, adjusting in-game and grinding to the final second. In addition, Indiana is now familiar with the Thunder’s length, defensive prowess and offensive sets.
Game 4 is going to be pivotal and this game will be in Indiana.
Jalen Williams Under 21.5 points (-120)
Williams was great and efficient in Game 3, finishing with 26 points on 9-of-18 shooting. Only six of those shots were at the rim, while 10 shots were in the analytical dead-zone — middle of the paint to a few feet in front of the three-point line. Williams drained four middies and converted one three-pointer.
I have doubts that Williams shoots efficiently again. In the first two games of the series, Williams went 6-of-19 and 5-of-14 from the field. Indiana has been great at adjusting throughout the playoffs, so I think it limits the number of layups and force Williams into tough contested middies.
During this playoff run, Williams has exceeded 20 points nine times, but four of those came in the opening series with Memphis.
I think Indiana tightens the screws in Game 4, especially limiting Williams to a sub-par game.
