Wrigley Field hosts a compelling National League Central clash tonight as the Cubs (41-27) take on the Pirates (28-41). Despite recent hiccups, the Cubs stand firm in the division’s top spot, boasting an elite offense led by Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki. But the Pirates aren’t rolling over. They’ve won 5 of their last 6, powered by an unyielding rotation and standout hitters like Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Their momentum, though, faces a serious test in Chicago, especially with Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA) taking the mound. The Cubs, with their potent lineup and Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA) on the hill, should be hungry for a rebound after their recent series losses. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Pirates and the Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA) will take the mound for the Pirates, and while his ERA looks respectable, his underlying metrics point to regression in a bad spot. With a 4.70 xERA and career-worst K-BB% of 9.4, Heaney’s pitching over his head. The Cubs saw right through him earlier this season, tagging him for four runs in just 4.2 innings in a dominant 9-0 win. Heaney’s fly-ball-heavy approach, coupled with the Cubs’ top-tier slugging, doesn’t bode well tonight. The Cubs are ranked third in OPS and fourth in xSLG, making them a nightmare for left-handed pitchers like Heaney.
Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA) will pitch for Chicago, and the edge is all his. Taillon’s advanced metrics are solid—his 2.70 ERA in six home starts this season is a testament to his reliability at Wrigley. He’s been near flawless in recent outings, giving up just five earned runs across his last four starts, and the Pirates’ offense is simply not built to challenge him. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in the league for runs (3.26 per game) and slugging (.343), while Chicago’s offense is first in the league in runs (5.53 per game) and fourth in home runs (94). The Cubs’ offense will feast on Heaney’s mistakes.
Looking at the Pirates’ lineup, Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have been bright spots, but Cruz’s power isn’t enough to carry a team with such a low batting average and wRC+ of 91. The Pirates’ struggles against right-handed pitchers—ranking 27th in wRC+—are likely to continue against Taillon’s steady command and consistency. The Cubs’ bullpen, ranked 6th in ERA (3.31), should also limit any late-game rallies the Pirates might attempt.
The Cubs’ offensive depth—led by Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker—will overpower the Pirates. Crow-Armstrong is slugging a team-best .545, with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, ranking in the top 10 for both homers and RBIs across the league. Suzuki, hitting .266 with 16 home runs and 56 RBIs, has been an absolute force, and he brings a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. Meanwhile, Kyle Tucker, batting .274 with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, continues to produce with consistent power, including at least one RBI in his last six appearances against the Pirates. These hitters should have no problem exploiting Heaney’s vulnerabilities tonight.
Pirates vs. Cubs pick, best bet
While the Pirates are riding some momentum, their 9-22 road record and inability to generate offense against quality pitching paint a bleak picture here. The Cubs have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games following a loss, and tonight, the home crowd at Wrigley will see a rebound performance.
The Cubs’ offensive depth—led by PCAll-Star, Suzuki, and King Tuck—will overpower the Pirates. With Taillon set to shut down Pittsburgh’s lackluster offense, I’m locking in the Cubs -1.5 (+105) as the play tonight. It’s been a wild ride for the Pirates, but their offensive struggles will have a tough time keeping up with a Cubs squad primed for pop. This team will just be too eager to rebound from recent losses.
Best bet: Cubs -1.5 (+105) vs. Pirates
Cubs will be too hungry to return to form—Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
