Welcome to the show, Jacob Misiorowski!
In tonight’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers, which will decide second place in the NL Central for now, Milwaukee will be sending its top pitching prospect to the mound to face off against the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray. It’ll be the opener of a four-game set between the teams, and the Brewers have taken two of the three games so far this season.
Let’s break down this highly-anticipated matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals at Brewers prediction, preview
I’m a full believer that Misiorowski is going to be very good eventually. The six-foot-seven 23-year-old has thrown 63 innings in Triple-A this season and sports just a 2.13 ERA. His fastball regularly touches 100 miles per hour, and his game tape speaks for itself.
Still, not every pitcher is guaranteed to be a star from the first time they step on an MLB mound, especially not a 23-year-old who struggled some with control issues in the minors, issuing six walks in his second-to-last start in Triple-A. Misiorowski is going to be nervous, especially pitching in front of home fans, and surely his family will come up from Missouri to be in attendance. There would be no shame in pitching four innings and giving up three runs — it’s exactly what Paul Skenes, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, did in his first MLB appearance.
St. Louis won’t necessarily make it easy. The Cardinals have posted the 10th-best OPS this season against right-handed pitchers, and they tend to be very patient, swinging at the 10th-lowest percentage of total pitches. If they don’t chase against the rookie, his pitch count could rise and his confidence could fall. Nolan Arenado chases a lot, but he also rarely whiffs, and Lars Nootbaar has an elite eye, which, in combination, could extend innings and frustrate Misiorowski.
Gray, meanwhile, is in extremely hot form, as he’s gone 13.1 innings without giving up a run over his last two starts and has now held the opposition scoreless in three of his last four starts. The veteran right-hander has ranked third in the NL in strikeout-to-walk ratio in each of the last two seasons, and the Brewers have relied on their above-average walk rate and above-average pitching staff to lead to wins. Their offense, which ranks fifth-to-last in OPS this season, has been problematic, and I’d expect Gray to continue cruising tonight.
Cardinals at Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+123)
Neither team is in great form, as St. Louis is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee has lost consecutive series losses to the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves. However, I’m airing on the side of caution with Misiorowski and assuming that he’ll be out-dueled by Gray. Once Misiorowski is out of the game, the Brewers’ bullpen has the league’s 10th-highest ERA.
Strong Lean: Jacob Misiorowski O1.5 Walks Allowed (-135)
Milwaukee fans shouldn’t be concerned if Misiorowski exhibits mediocre control out tonight. Right now, the top two contenders for the NL Cy Young Award are Skenes and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Skenes walked two batters in his first start, and 20 of Yamamoto’s 43 pitches were balls in his debut, though he only walked one in his sole inning of work.
