It’s now been five straight wins for the Yankees against the Royals this season. New York secured it’s latest victory on Wednesday, a 6-3 triumph. However, Kansas City has a chance at gettin back on track tonight with ace Seth Lugo. Which of these two American League rivals will come out on top? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night battle between the Yankees and Royals.
The Yankees enter tonight as favorites (-157) over the Royals, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Thursday’s contest.
Yankees at Royals prediction, preview
It’s been another terrific season for the Yankees, currently leading the AL East with a 41-25 record. Key to New York’s success has been a dynamic lineup, currently leading baseball with 5.53 runs scored per game. As always, the Bombers have been carried by Aaron Judge. The two-time MVP is on pace for a historic campaign, currently slashing .394/.490/.779 at the plate with 25 homers and 59 RBIs. Judge has also gone deep in each of the first two games in this series, including a 469-foot moonshot on Tuesday. #99 is supported by several high-quality hitters, including Paul Goldschmidt (132 wRC+), Ben Rice (127 wRC+) and Cody Bellinger (118 wRC+).
Yankees starter Will Warren has pitched to a mediocre 5.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season. In addition, the rookie has coughed up 11 earned runs over his last 6.2 innings of work. Still, those two outings came against the Dodgers and Red Sox, two elite offenses. Tonight’s contest is much different; Kansas City ranks 28th in baseball with 3.40 runs scored per game. In addition, Warren’s 3.34 FIP suggests he’s due for some much-needed positive regression going forward. A light-hitting Royals lineup could present a prime opportunity for the right-hander.
In terms of track record, Kansas City has a decisive pitching advantage tonight. Former All-Star Seth Lugo is set to face the Yankees on Thursday, making his 12th appearance of 2025. During that time, the 35-year-old owns a 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 50 strikeouts. The right-hander is a modern innings eater, tossing at least six frames in nearly two-thirds of his outings. In his last four outings vs. New York, Lugo has held the Bombers to ten runs over 25.2 innings (3.51 ERA). Through seven starts this season at Kaufmann Stadium, he’s notched a stellar 3.10 ERA.
Yankees at Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees Royals under nine runs (-108)
The Yankees are overpriced as favorites tonight with Warren on the mound. Still, the Royals have shown little ability to hit New York during this series. In a pitching battle between youth and experience, runs might be hard to come by.
