This week, the PGA TOUR heads to Oakmont, PA, for the 2025 U.S. Open. This year’s U.S. Open will be hosted at one of the most revered U.S. Open setups in the country: Oakmont Country Club. This season will mark the 10th time Oakmont has hosted the U.S. Open, making it the record holder for the most U.S. Open events ever hosted.
The venue has seen some very high winning totals in the past, as Angel Cabrera won at this venue back in 2007 with a winning score of just +4. In 2016, Dustin Johnson won his first major at Oakmont, posting -4 for the week and winning by three strokes. Oakmont doesn’t play overly long, but it has some of the most complex greens and green structures on the planet, which will make good around-the-green play and lag putting a huge factor this week.
I wrote more about the course in this week’s U.S. Open Cheat Sheet.
“On top of bunkers and thick rough to contend with off the tee, players will have to deal with some of the most severe and complex green structures they have seen all year. While some of the greens at Oakmont have been widened or enlarged, that has only opened up more pin placements for the USGA, and you can expect a ton of “tucked pins,” especially if the course plays soft to start.
Shots into greens have an easy chance of rolling off the green and into a bunker or rough area, so both approach play and short games will be tested here. It’s worth noting that while a big hitter in Dustin Johnson eventually took home the trophy in 2016 (the last time a U.S. Open was played at Oakmont), the leaderboard was littered that season with short game and iron specialists; including Jim Furyk, Scott Piercy (T2) and Kevin Na (7th). The fact that Furyk, one of the most precise iron and short game players in the game during his prime, also finished T2 at Oakmont in 2007, is a good indicator that power isn’t all that will be needed to contend this week.
Some of what makes Oakmont more quirky in this regard (from other U.S. Open setups) is its layout. While the course is still long for a par 70 at 7,372 yards, a lot of that length comes from just a few holes. The two par 5s measure in at well over 600 yards, and the par 4 18th is a traditional nail-biter for anyone needing a par, as it’s set to play over 500 yards as a par 4. There is also the par-3 8th hole that could play well over 300 yards this week.”
DraftKings has a lot of full-round totals up for this week’s event already. It is the U.S. Open, so power does play more than it would at a regular course, but precision iron play and good around-the-green skills should be valued this week as well and I’ve factored that in when making the picks below.
Also, remember when making lineups for this week, that totals have likely been adjusted for the hardness of this course, so there may be value lurking on both sides.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”).
Marc Leishman More Than 36.5 Holes Completed
Leishman is coming into this week’s U.S. Open with some decent form. He’s already won on the LIV Tour this season down in Miami and finished T10 last week in Virginia. At 41, he’s still competitive and has been a solid major championship competitor throughout his career. Having been away from the majors since joining LIV, Leishman should be extra motivated for this week as well.
The U.S. Open may not be the best major for veteran players, but Oakmont saw a lot of players in their late 30s and early 40s compete well in 2016. Leishman himself also finished T18 that season. While he may struggle to finish inside the top 20 again thanks to his time away from the majors, I’m pretty bullish on him at least making the weekend and getting in the full 72 holes of play.
With a regular multiplier, I like taking the more than on the 36.5 holes played for the Aussie this week.
Ryan Gerard More Than 36.5 Holes Completed
Gerard is another name that I feel confident playing to make the weekend. The American has had a great season on the PGA already, having landed a runner-up finish at the Valero in April and a T8 at the PGA Championship last month. While the putter will need to improve this week, he’s gained strokes Off the Tee, Around the Greens, and on Approach in three straight starts.
Gerard will be playing in his third U.S. Open this season, and he did make the cut at LA Country Club in 2023, despite being in worse form than he is now. Just like Leishman, he also feels like a nice value (to play to make the weekend), given his current multiplier.
Russell Henley Better Than 29.5 Finishing Position
Henley isn’t the prototypical U.S. Open player. He doesn’t have a high ball flight or hit the ball super far off the tee. That said, his around-the-green game is one of the best in the world, and he’s an expert short-iron player whose precision on approach should be a huge benefit given the very complex slopes on the Oakmont greens.
Despite the lack of power, Henley has also done very well at this major over the years. He finished T7 at Pinehurst last season and has finished top 15 in three of the last four U.S. Opens. Given some of the names we saw finish in the top 20 at Oakmont in 2016 (Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na), Henley may even find this year’s venue more inviting than ones from past seasons.
With a big finishing total of 29.5, I don’t see any reason not to be bullish on him again this year. He’s coming off a T5 finish at the Memorial and feels like a solid dark horse pick to contend this season.
Tyrrell Hatton Worse Than 29.5 Finishing Position
Hatton had a solid start to the season but has regressed a bit of late. The Englishman managed just a T60 at the PGA Championship, an event where he lost strokes on approach and off the tee. While he’s a solid all-around player, Hatton did lose strokes putting in the first two majors of the season and will now have to contend with even tougher greens; given his combustible personality, it doesn’t feel like a great mix.
He did play well in Virginia on the LIV Tour last week but started slowly, and he won’t be afforded the chance at a third round if he starts the same way this week, with just the top 60 players and ties making the cut after Friday. Hatton hasn’t been terrible at this event, but he did finish outside the top 50 three years in a row, from 2020 to 2022, and feels like a longshot to do anything of relevance this week.
Ultimately, with the lead-in he’s had, this is a spot where I’m more than OK fading him posting a high finish.
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