The NBA Finals return to Indiana tonight with the series tied 1-1. The Indiana Pacers will be looking to retake control of the series and get better results after the Oklahoma City Thunder have held the lead for over 92 of the possible 96 minutes in the series.
Home court has not meant much across the playoffs thus far, but the Pacers are 6-2 when playing in front of the Indiana faithful. This will mark the first home NBA Finals game since the 1999-2000 season, so expect a raucous crowd. The Pacers were also 29-11 when playing at home in the regular season.
Oddsmakers have given the Pacers the most respect in tonight’s game that they have all season. The Thunder were 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 1 and 11-point favorites in Game 2.
Looking at the Game 3 odds, the Thunder are 5-point favorites and -218 on the moneyline. The Pacers hold +180 odds of pulling off the upset on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 227.5 for this matchup.
With plenty on the line in the second NBA Finals matchup, here are my favorite prop bets for this Thunder vs. Pacers Game 3.
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (-105)
The Indiana Pacers desperately need more offensive production from someone, and look for Pascal Siakam to fill these shoes tonight. While Tyrese Haliburton remains the engine of the Pacers’ offense, he has been notably bothered by Oklahoma City’s impressive perimeter defense so far in the series. With players like Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Jalen Williams each taking turns on Haliburton, expect offense to continue to be difficult to come by. The star guard has tallied 31 total points through he opening two games, and it took a strong fourth quarter effort when the game was already out of reach in Game 2 for the numbers to look this respectable.
While there is no true weak spot in the Thunder defense, Siakam has better chances against this OKC frontcourt. The three-time All-Star has tallied scoring outputs of 15 and 19 in the opening two games, falling short of the prop line in each. But Siakam is averaging 20.6 points per game throughout the postseason after scoring 20.2 points per game in the regular season. He has tallied over 19.5 points in five of his past 10 games and scored as many as 39 points in this playoff run. The former champion scored 30+ points in three of the six games in the Knicks series, with eight games of 20+ points in the postseason.
The Thunder have experimented with their lineups already in this series and shown an increased willingness to go small. Expect Siakam to hunt mismatches whenever this occurs and have more success getting out in transition than was the case in the opening two games. Siakam attempted just 11 field goal attempts in the opening matchup. This marks his fourth-fewest shot attempts across these entire playoffs. He is also averaging 22.0 points per game in this playoff run compared to 19.2 points per game on the road. The Pacers’ offense has yet to settle in and look like itself, and if it does not happen tonight, it may not happen all series. Expect Indiana to have greater success playing at their tempo, and for Siakam to be a driving force in this. Count on him to tally over 19.5 points for the first time in this series tonight as he becomes the steady source of offense the team needs.
Jalen Williams Under 20.5 Points (-105)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander answered all questions this season regarding his ability to serve as the best player on a championship team. But the bigger question was if Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were ready to step up as his proper co-star. While Williams has been largely excellent throughout the postseason run, he has struggled to start this series. Williams is shooting just 11-for-34 from the field and has been held to scoring outputs of 19 and 17 through the opening two games. He has shot under 42% from the field since the start of the second round of the playoffs.
While the shot volume is there for the first-time All-Star, Williams has been held to under 20.5 points in 11 of the 18 games this postseason. Indiana has done a nice job improving their defense this season, and Williams has felt these effects. They continue to stick to the blueprint of being more tolerant of Gilgeous-Alexander getting to his spots in the mid-range in preference to him collapsing the defense and kicking to shooters on the perimeter. Williams is getting plenty of shot attempts, but they have not been the cleanest looks.
Expect this game plan to stay mostly the same and for Indiana to play with a clear desperation tonight. Williams has struggled to get open shots to this point and don’t expect this to change in Game 3. He has not been reliable enough in reaching this scoring total, and look for Jalen Williams to be held to under 20.5 points for the third straight game.
Bennedict Mathurin to Record 15+ Points (+400)
For the last player prop choice, we are taking a +400 swing on Bennedict Mathurin to record 15+ points. Indiana has a deep roster with plenty of different players capable of stepping up on any given night. Mathurin saw his minutes increase from 15:53 in the opening game to 21:53 in Game 2. Expect this to be a sign of things to come, with his combination of size and athleticism faring better against this athletic Thunder roster. He finished with 14 points in the previous game and also tallied 20+ points in Games 4 and 5 against the Knicks.
On the season overall, Mathurin averaged 16.1 points per game and tallied 15+ points in 41 of the 72 games in the regular season. He is averaging just 10.3 points per game in the playoffs, but has still tallied 15+ points in four games while seeing his level of opportunity go up and down. Mathurin’s standard point prop is set at 8.5 with the odds set at -115 in either direction.
While I am obviously backing this number as well, there is some additional value on the board. The Pacers need one of their X-factor role players to have an outlier scoring night, and I am backing Mathurin to be the guy. He also averaged 16.9 points per game at home this season in comparison to 15.3 on the road. With the home crowd behind him and a large opportunity seen in Game 2, count on Mathurin to make the most of his chances tonight. He has not blinked at big moments in the past, and expect him to rise to the challenge in this crucial matchup.
