In a postseason that’s been reminiscent of a March Madness Tournament in terms of unexpected results, Game 3 of the NBA Finals is truly one of the more difficult handicaps I’ve seen from a side perspective. Both of these teams have been downright awful in Game 3 throughout their playoff runs.
The Thunder are 1-2 in Game 3, but 0-3 ATS. That lone victory was in Game 3 in Memphis, in which they trailed by as many as 29 points in the first half, but narrowly won as a near double-digit favorite. In the next two rounds, OKC went on to lose Game 3 by 12 points in Denver and get pounded by 41 points in Minnesota.
The Pacers are 0-3 in Game 3, and also 0-3 ATS. Indy lost by 16 points in Milwaukee and then by 22 and six points respectively in home games to the Cavs and Knicks. With the series tied 1-1, urgency should be high on both sides. The Pacers have been up 2-0 in each previous series, which maybe explains some of the Game 3 struggles given the desperation of the opponent.
If you made me pick the game, I’d lean to taking the points with the Pacers at home. While OKC is 4-3 on the road in this postseason, it’s 0-7 ATS and the largest margin of victory has been by six points (which came against the worst team in Memphis). Meanwhile, Indiana has struggled in Game 3 situations, but has been fantastic off a loss. Rick Carlisle has been a master with adjustments, and the Pacers have gone 4-0 SU/ATS following a loss in these playoffs, winning by an average margin of 18 points. The Thunder’s road struggles, combined with Indy’s dominance off a loss push me in that direction, but I feel better about a player prop in this one.
Tyrese Haliburton’s clutch performance in these playoffs has been historic. While he’s had some monster games, like the triple-double against the Knicks, his postseason has been highlighted more by big moments at the end of games than putting up big numbers consistently. While he’s proven capable of making the big play late if Game 3 comes down to it, I can’t trust Haliburton to put together a complete game at this stage, particularly against OKC’s defense.
If we incorporate the regular season matchups between these two teams, Haliburton is averaging 13.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists in 34.3 minutes per game. That’s a total of 23.9 on his points, rebounds and assists combined, and he’s a 4-0 to the under on his prop in the individual games. It makes sense when you think about the wave of defenders that the Thunder are capable of throwing at Haliburton — Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and the newly crowned MVP.
Add in that Haliburton is admittedly “dealing with a lower leg thing,” and that’s enough for me to fade the Pacers’ star in Game 3. We’ll see how this game goes in terms of the outright winner and who covers, but there’s a good chance the loser of this one will be the side I like in a must-win Game 4.
NBA Finals Game 3 Best Bet: Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 31.5 P/R/A (-120) – 1-unit
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