In this high-octane era of baseball, records — mostly on offense — have been set left and right, but the Colorado Rockies have fallen behind. The Rockies were never supposed to be good this season, but not even the most ardent hater could have seen them getting off to a 12-53 start, on pace for the worst regular-season winning percentage in the modern era. Technically, Colorado still does have +4000 odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Rockies will hope to change their fortunes tonight as they start a new series against the San Francisco Giants, as they have no reason to tank; they cannot pick higher than 10th in 2026 because they’ve had a lottery selection in both 2024 and 2025.
The Giants will start Kyle Harrison on the mound, while Colorado looks set to roll with Carson Palmquist.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants at Rockies prediction, preview
Palmquist might give his team a better chance to win than Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, or Antonio Senzatela — he’s technically been better than any of them by wins above replacement — but that’s largely a function of the sample size. In his four starts, he’s pitched 18 innings, conceding 17 earned runs on 23 hits, 10 walks, and 14 strikeouts. To be fair to the rookie, he has conceded four or fewer earned runs in each of his last two starts, and he limited the high-powered Chicago Cubs to just two runs in five innings on May 26, so he has potential. He also doesn’t give up many hard hits, although he ranks in the bottom septile in every other Statcast category.
Harrison has mostly appeared out of the bullpen this season and has been somewhat effective, but in his last start, the San Diego Padres got to him for nine hits and five runs in 4.1 innings, ballooning his ERA from 2.51 to 4.34. Still, he pitched somewhat better than his line indicated, as his FIP actually dropped from 3.91 to 3.55 after the performance, and pitching poorly against San Diego’s high-powered offense is hardly something to be ashamed of. The southpaw is a one-trick pony, slinging his four-seamer on more than two-thirds of his pitches, but it’s a fairly effective pitch, with 14.5 inches of induced arm-side movement, and hitters have posted just a .240 wOBA against it.
San Francisco has been on a roll, winning five straight games to leapfrog the Padres for second in the NL West, and with an easy three-game series against the Rockies on the docket while San Diego does battle with the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s possible that the Giants could top the division prior to their series this weekend against Los Angeles. The games have been close — each of their last five victories have been by exactly one run — as they’ve won on a walk-off wild pitch and a walk-off two-run shot. Those crunch-time heroics should help against Colorado, which actually has only the league’s 10th-worst bullpen.
Giants at Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 11 Runs (-101)
Even at the high elevation of Coors Field, 11 runs is an extremely high line, given that four of the Rockies’ last five games — three of which have been at home — have gone under the run total, as well as three of San Francisco’s last five. The Giants have won mostly on the strength of their pitching — their bullpen, for instance, has by far the lowest ERA in the league, and the staff as a whole has the third-best mark so far in June — and they’ve had the third-worst OPS so far this month.
Strong Lean: Kyle Harrison Race to 3 Strikeouts (-120)
These odds are friendly because Palmquist will pitch first in each inning, but so far, Colorado’s starter has struggled to punch people out. He ranks in just the 10th percentile in strikeout rate and third percentile in whiff rate, and Harrison is better than the league average in both of those categories. The altitude may help the ball go further, but it won’t help the Rockies’ hitters make contact to begin with.
