This is the second game of a three-game series in Boston.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay while Lucas Giolito should get the nod for Boston.
Rays at Red Sox prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot was very good during his first season with Tampa Bay. In 130 innings, he posted a 26.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He allowed 17 home runs. So far through 76 innings this season, the strikeout rate has decreased by 5.2%, but the walk rate has come down by 1.6%. The long ball has been an issue, though, as he’s already served up 12. The hard hit rate is a career-high 44%.
Pepiot has reverse splits, as righties have been more successful, slashing .263/.315/.455 with seven home runs. While lefties have hit five home runs, they are slashing only .180/.246/.378. Pepiot has been much better on the road, and 11 of the 12 home runs have been allowed at home.
Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs only once. Back in mid-April during his fourth start of the season, Boston tagged him for six earned runs and two home runs in six innings. He did strikeout eight, though, tying a season-high.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have struck out at the fourth-highest rate while having the seventh-best ISO. The wOBA is seventh-best in MLB.
Lucas Giolito used to have a strikeout rate in the 25%-to-33% range. Injuries and old age have sapped him, though. Through 33.2 innings this season, the strikeout rate is 18% and the swinging strike rate is a paltry 7.2%. The average exit velocity is 91.5 mph while the hard hit rate is a career-high 45.5%. One ray of sunshine is that the FIP is only 4.76 compared to the 6.42 ERA. The BABIP is an elevated .358 while the strand rate is only 66.5%.
Both righties and lefties have crushed him and he’s gotten clobbered at home. Opponents are slashing .438/.469/.712 with four home runs in Boston.
Giolito is coming off a start in which the Angels pasted him for seven earned runs in 1.2 innings. He has two other starts this season allowing six earned runs in each. This will be the first time facing Tampa Bay this season.
The Rays have struck out at the seventh-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 14th in ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
As for bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 17th-lowest FIP while Boston has the seventh-lowest.
Rays at Red Sox Pick, Best Bet
This game is tied for the second-highest total on the slate, so runs are expected to be scored. Boston did rough up Pepiot earlier in the season, but I think Pepiot pitches well here, as this game is in Boston. As for Giolito, I have no faith in him and think the Rays offense goes bonkers.
