This game presents a prime opportunity for the Pittsburgh Pirates to extend their momentum after a solid series sweep. The Marlins, on the other hand, are limping into this matchup, struggling with offensive consistency and a pitching rotation that’s in flux. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Pirates and the Marlins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Marlins prediction, preview
The Pirates are coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies, each of those victories decided by one run. While Pittsburgh’s offense is hardly an imposing force, their pitching staff has been solid, especially in the last few games. Mike Burrows (1-1, 5.27 ERA) will take the mound, but don’t let the ERA fool you. He was dominant in his last outing against Houston, tossing 5.1 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. His xFIP suggests a lot of bad luck so far, and if his command is as sharp as it was against the Astros, he could very well have another strong outing.
On the other side, the Marlins are relying on Eury Pérez, making his first start in over a year after Tommy John surgery. Sure, Pérez showed promise before his injury with a 3.15 ERA in 2023, but he’s not fully stretched out, and there’s no telling how much rust will show. Miami’s bullpen, which holds a 5.03 ERA, doesn’t inspire much confidence either. The Pirates, despite their offensive struggles, have enough firepower to exploit these vulnerabilities, especially at home.
Let’s talk about the players who will tip the scale. Oneil Cruz, with his 12 home runs, leads Pittsburgh’s offense and will be a crucial factor. Cruz’s power against right-handed pitching (his career .459 SLG) sets him up nicely for success against Pérez’s flyball-heavy approach. Bryan Reynolds, who leads the Pirates with 36 RBIs, is also worth noting. Reynolds has been quietly efficient and will have the chance to cash in on any Marlins’ mistakes in key spots. Meanwhile, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s .299 average and on-base skills make him a perfect catalyst at the top of the order, particularly when facing a pitcher like Pérez who’s still finding his rhythm.
For Miami, Kyle Stowers has been the lone bright spot, with 10 home runs and a team-high 33 RBIs. But even his power doesn’t make up for the overall offensive inconsistency. The Marlins rank 23rd in the league in runs scored and 27th in team ERA. When a lineup is struggling to produce and facing a pitching staff that’s quietly been above average, it’s hard to see the Marlins outlasting Pittsburgh.
Marlins vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Miami’s offensive woes are amplified by their poor road performance, where they’ve posted a mere .233 team batting average and a .296 OBP in away games. This lack of production is only worsened by their 5.03 team ERA on the road, ranking 27th in the league.
The Pirates, conversely, have been effective at home with a 6-2 record in their last eight games against National League opponents. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a respectable 3.84 ERA, sitting in the middle of the pack in MLB, but they’ve been even better in tight situations, posting a 1.21 WHIP over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh has also outperformed the Marlins in one-run games, winning three of their last four one-run contests, whereas Miami has failed to close out tight games, with a 1-4 record in their last five one-run decisions. Additionally, the Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games as underdogs following a road loss, a trend that further highlights their struggle to bounce back in tough situations.
The Marlins do have a quality pitcher in Pérez—but he’s not proven in 2025, and his first start after a long layoff is a huge question mark. Miami’s bullpen is also a major liability, and their lack of run support has held them back all season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has the edge in recent form and home-field advantage.
This all leads me to one conclusion: Pittsburgh is the right side here. With Burrows riding the high of a strong outing, backed by a defense that’s been tight, and a Marlins offense that simply can’t seem to break out, the Pirates will get it done.
Best bet: Pirates (-120) vs. Marlins
Marlins trends simply all point to a loss—Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
