This is the opener of a three-game series in Cleveland.
Wade Miley is scheduled to pitch for Cincinnati while Luis Ortiz should get the nod for Cleveland.
Reds at Guardians prediction, preview
Wade Miley only pitched seven innings last season due to Tommy John surgery. He just returned four days ago and pitched two innings. Miley is a soft-tossing lefty who has had a strikeout rate of over 20% only once in his career. Two seasons ago, he posted a 3.14 ERA, but the FIP was much higher at 4.69. It’s highly unlikely that Miley pitches a significant amount of innings, which should make it essentially a bullpen game for Cincinnati, which is good news for the Guardians because the Reds pen hasn’t been good.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the sixth-highest rate while having the 28th-best ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best in MLB.
Luis Ortiz is 26 years old and is pitching in his fourth MLB season, three of those with Pittsburgh. When he first arrived, the fastball averaged 98.5 mph and the strikeout rate was 24.6%. As with most young pitchers, though, the control was suspect, resulting in a 14.5% walk rate. Over the next two seasons, he dialed down the velocity. The walk rate came down but at the expense of missing bats. In 65 innings with Cleveland this season, the strikeout rate has spiked up to a career-high 35.4% but the walk rate has increased as well. He’s posted a 4.02 ERA, but the FIP is a bit lower at 3.81.
The batting average yielded to lefties has been sub-.200, but five of the seven home runs allowed have come against them. The FIP of 4.81 is much higher than 2.75 against righties. Ortiz has been much better at home than on the road, although BABIP luck has had a heavy influence in both locations.
Ortiz got lit up for seven earned runs in his first start of the season. He then had two more games with over three earned runs. In the five most recent starts, Ortiz has been very good. He’s allowed zero, one, three, two and one earned runs. The control still hasn’t been great with 14 walks, but he’s struck out 31 batters over that span. The 3.29 FIP is much higher than the 2.28 ERA, as the 88.1% strand rate is elevated. That said, the BABIP is also at .328 and he’s done well keeping the ball in the yard, allowing only two home runs.
The Reds have struck out at the sixth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 10th in ISO. The wOBA is sixth-best.
As for bullpens, Cincinnati has the 25th-lowest FIP while Cleveland has the seventh-lowest.
Reds at Guardians pick, best bet
Wade Miley and the Reds bullpen aren’t good, and I think Cleveland scores some runs. That said, Progressive Field is a pitcher-friendly park, so an offensive explosion seems unlikely. Especially since Ortiz has been good for Cleveland at home and the Guardians bullpen is one of the best in the game.
