The NBA Finals are off to a thrilling start, complete with a Tyrese Haliburton dagger to add to his impressive playoff run. The Pacers have taken a shocking 1-0 series lead despite leading the matchup for just 0.3 total seconds.
Oklahoma City will be looking to bounce back and even the series after entering as monstrous favorites. They still hold -300 odds of winning the series on DraftKings Sportsbook, but were -700 favorites before the opening matchup. This outlook would shift if the Pacers can produce another upset, and the Thunder must learn the lesson that you must keep your foot on the gas for all 48 minutes when playing this resilient opponent.
Looking at the Game 2 odds, the Thunder are 11-point favorites and -600 on the Moneyline. The Pacers hold +440 odds of pulling off the upset with the over/under set at 228.5 for this matchup.
With plenty on the line in the second NBA Finals matchup, here are my favorite prop bets for this Thunder vs. Pacers Game 2.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists (+114)
The game-winning shot will be what people remember (and rightfully so), but Tyrese Haliburton struggled for most of Game 1. Across his 39 minutes played, Haliburton was limited to 14 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. He shot 6-for-13 from the field with Oklahoma City’s variety of high-level defenders proving bothersome. Expect the intensity to only be further increased following the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, and for Haliburton to be completely comfortable taking what the defense gives him. At his core, he is still a pass-first player, so I expect a bounce-back game from a playmaking perspective.
Across the regular season, Haliburton averaged 9.2 assists per game. Last year’s assist champion has seen this number grow to an NBA-best 9.5 assists in the postseason. He has tallied over 8.5 assists in 10 of the 17 postseason games thus far. The three-time All-Star averaged 10.5 assists per game against the Knicks in the previous series and reached double-digits in four of the six games.
This is a difficult defensive matchup for Haliburton, but he has done a nice job finding ways to impact the game even while struggling as a scorer all year. Indiana did a nice job in the second half of Game 1 by having Haliburton come off screens and get the ball going downhill. Look for him to have success driving and creating through this method and tally over 8.5 assists in Game 2.
Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115)
It was an ugly start to the series for Chet Holmgren. The 23-year-old was limited to 23:31 of game action and finished with just six points and six rebounds. To his credit, Holmgren has responded well to struggles throughout his young career and has the mental toughness to bounce back.
Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds across the regular season and is producing 8.4 rebounds per game throughout this playoff run. He tallied over 8.5 rebounds in 14 of his 32 regular-season games and in seven postseason games. The Thunder abandoned their double-big starting lineup of Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor together by giving Cason Wallace the start in Game 1. They were outrebounded 56-39 in the matchup, so expect an adjustment to be made as a result of this.
While there is a case to be made that Hartenstein will take away some of the rebounding opportunities, expect the free-agent addition to make his impact felt by putting a body on the Pacers who attacked the glass to make life more difficult. Aaron Nesmith led the team with 12 rebounds, Pascal Siakam and Haliburton each tallied 10 rebounds, while Myles Turner finished with nine boards. He is slight in frame, but Holmgren is not afraid to get physical and will need to put his imprint on this game. Count on the Thunder to get back to what got them here and for Holmgren to see additional time in Game 2. Look for him to shake off to slow start and get back on track with over 8.5 rebounds with the home crowd behind him.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 34.5 Points (-110)
Depth is a strength of both of these teams in the NBA Finals, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the head of the snake for the Thunder. The MVP led the NBA in scoring across the regular season with 32.7 points per game and is averaging 30.2 points per game in the postseason. He finished with 38 points in the opening game of this series, but it took 30 field goal attempts to get there.
Indiana made a conscious effort to be focused on limiting three-point looks and staying glued to the perimeter. Gilgeous-Alexander is extremely effective at attacking and collapsing opposing defenses, with this being the foundation of the Thunder offense. The Pacers did not play into this game plan, which allowed the Thunder star to get plenty of shot volume up.
Expect more of this in the second game as the Pacers live with Gilgeous-Alexander’s mid-range attack rather than clean three-point looks thanks to the attention he draws. The Thunder will enter Game 2 with a focused effort and it will be Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. The multi-time All-Star has tallied over 34.5 points in four of his past seven games and 26 games in the regular season. This includes dropping 45 points against the Pacers in the regular season. Expect Gilgeous-Alexander to set the tone early and never take his foot off the gas. Look for him to tally over 34.5 points in the second straight game and continue finding his spots to operate in the midrange.
