This is the second game of a three-game series in New York.
Garrett Crochet is scheduled to pitch for Boston while Ryan Yarbrough should get the nod for New York.
Red Sox at Yankees prediction, preview
Garrett Crochet was the prized offseason acquisition for Boston, and he’s been worth every penny of the six-year, $170 million contract extension. The strikeout rate is 30.9% while the K-BB% is 22.9%. The swinging strike rate is 13.7% and the chase rate is 30.3%. He’s allowed only seven home runs in 82 innings and has posted a 1.98 ERA. Now, he’s been a little fortunate, as the strand rate is 85.5% and the FIP is much higher at 2.68. That said, the average exit velocity is 87.3 mph, hard hit rate is 35% and the barrel rate is 8%.
Crochet is fairly split neutral with a slight lean to being more effective against lefties and pitching on the road.
Crochet has allowed more than two earned runs in only one start this season while pitching at least five innings in every start. This will be the first time facing the Yankees this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the 21st-highest rate while having the best ISO. The wOBA is best in MLB.
Ryan Yarbrough has started five games and won three. The ERA is 2.83 but the FIP is much higher at 4.22. Yarbrough is a soft-tossing lefty that is averaging 88.4 mph on the fastball. The BABIP is only .223 while the strand rate is a whopping 90.1%. He’s only walked 11 batters in 41.4 innings but served up seven home runs. The average exit velocity is only 84.1 mph, the barrel rate is a microscopic 3.6% and the hard hit rate is 26.4%.
Righties are only slashing .185/.269/.359 against Yarbrough, but 10 of the 11 walks have been to righties while five of seven home runs have been hit by them. Yarbrough has been slightly better on the road.
Yarbrough has allowed only one earned run in four of the five starts. In the other one, he allowed two earned runs. Now, it took him a minute to get ramped up, so he’s only gone six innings in the last two starts. He just faced the vaunted Dodgers lineup and held them to one earned run on four hits, no walks and five strikeouts. This will be the first time facing Boston.
The Red Sox have struck out at the 15th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 11th in ISO. The wOBA is third-best.
As for bullpens, Boston has the fifth-lowest FIP while New York has the 10th-lowest.
Red Sox at Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees have bats and can score runs, but good pitching usually trumps good offense, and Crochet is better than a good pitcher. I think he shuts down the Yankees while the bullpen keeps things in check. Some of the underlying numbers don’t give me confidence with Yarbrough, but he just shut down the Dodgers while there are other numbers that are pretty, pretty good, especially limiting hard contact. I’m going with the good old fashioned pitcher’s duel.
