The Dallas Wings (1-7) host the Los Angeles Sparks (2-6) in a battle of two teams looking to get back on track for the season. This will be the second game in tonight’s WNBA doubleheader.
It has been an especially frustrating start for the Sparks. There was plenty of hype coming into the season after a blockbuster trade for Kelsey Plum in addition to a few other win-now veterans being brought in. While you cannot ignore the 2-6 record, the results have not been as concerning as this number would indicate.
Dallas looked to begin their organizational turnaround after their 9-31 finish last season. They selected Paige Bueckers with the first overall pick as the hopeful franchise cornerstone moving forward. The UConn product has had some early growing pains and will be out of the lineup tonight as she misses her third straight game in concussion protocol.
The Sparks enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and hold -130 odds of winning on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wings hold +110 Moneyline odds with the game total set at 174 points.
Prediction for Wings vs. Sparks
Both of these teams have lost three games in a row and are looking to build some momentum. While the results have not been overly positive with Bueckers on the floor, things have gotten worse since her injury. In the two games without the number one pick, Dallas’ offensive rating slipped to 97.0 after posting a 104.5 rating across the first six games with her active. They have produced 77 and 83 points across the past two games in her absence. Arike Ogunbowale will need to step up but has struggled to start the year, shooting just 34.9% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the three-point arc.
Defensively, things have been bad both with and without Bueckers. The Wings rank 11th in the WNBA in defensive rating and opponents have shot 37.8% from beyond the three-point arc, which is the fourth-worst rate in the league. They are also allowing the fourth-worst opponent field goal percentage at 45.6% per game.
Looking at Los Angeles, I remain optimistic despite their slow start. They are posting a -2.6 net rating, which ranks eighth in the WNBA and is far better than teams with a similar record. For reference, the 1-6 Connecticut Sun are posting a league-worst -23.8 net rating, and the Washington Mystics are 3-6 on the season with a -5.2 net rating.
The combination of a new coach, roster changes, and a tough opening schedule has led to some stumbles out of the gate. This has been compounded by Rickea Jackson missing five games due to injuries and personal reasons. Los Angeles has been off since their June 1 loss to the Mercury and this is the type of matchup they should have circled for getting back on track.
Pick for Wings vs. Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks -2.5 (-112) & Alt Line -8.5 (+250)
It has not been pretty for the Sparks yet this year, but tonight feels like the turning point. Kelsey Plum is still averaging 22.9 points per game, which ranks second in the WNBA, while adding 4.8 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game. While there are some fair critiques about Plum’s overall defense, she still provides more resistance than this collective Wings unit. Points should be easy to come by for Plum and the rest of the team. Getting Jackson back for this game is also a huge addition for the Sparks.
Ogunbowale’s struggles have been theorized to be connected to playing with Bueckers. However, the four-time All-Star has tallied just 23 combined points on 9-for-31 (29%) from the field and just 1-for-8 (12.5%) shooting from beyond the three-point arc in the pair of games without the rookie. Ogunbowale has a proven track record as a scorer and remains one of the top players in the league, but the struggles she is going through are real.
Both of Los Angeles’ wins have been by 13 points or greater, so don’t be shocked if this is their best game yet. Their two victories came against the Chicago Sky and Golden State Valkyries. I like the Sparks’ chances of adding to their list of wins tonight and am taking a swing on the +250 odds of pushing it to a nine-point victory or greater.
