The Dream (5-2) and Sun (1-6) will face off as part of tonight’s WNBA double-header. This will be the second matchup between these two teams already this season, with the Dream producing a convincing 79-55 victory on May 25th.
Atlanta has been impressive in the early games this season and enters this game on a four-game winning streak. This will make the third straight road game for the Dream after taking down the Storm and Sparks. Allisha Gray continues to shine with her team-leading 21.4 points per game, which ranks fourth in the WNBA. Ryne Howard has also impressed and Brittney Griner has begun to settle in with the team.
It has been a much more difficult start to the season for the Sun. They have just one win to show for this season against the Caitlin Clark-less Fever and are looking to bounce back from a 48-point (!) loss to the Liberty in their previous matchup. Tina Charles leads the team in scoring with 16.1 points per game, with Marina Mabrey being the only other Sun averaging double figures.
Atlanta is a 10.5-point favorite and holds -470 odds of winning on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Connecticut is a +360 Moneyline underdog and the game total set at O/U 158.5 points.
Dream vs. Sun preview
If there is one clear advantage you can find in favor of the Sun, it is the travel advantage. Atlanta is playing its third straight game on the road, and fatigue could become a factor. The team has been on the West Coast for the past two games and will travel back to the East Coast to play in Connecticut tonight. Across WNBA history, teams that have traveled from the Pacific timezone to the Eastern timezone where the opponent has not had a body clock mismatch, have gone 44-79-5 against the spread.
Regardless, talent should still be the driving factor, and there is a clear discrepancy in this game. Outside of the Liberty and Lynx, the Dream has been the most impressive team thus far in the WNBA season. Atlanta has covered each of its past four games, and the 79-55 victory over Connecticut in the first matchup speaks for itself.
Not only are the Sun tied for the fewest wins in the WNBA, but they are losing by a concerning -18.2 point differential. Connecticut is among the worst defensive teams in the league, posting a 112.9 defensive rating, which is dead last in the league. The team also ranks last in opponents’ shooting percentage, second-worst in opponents’ three-point percentage, and worst rebounding percentage. Offensively, the Sun also average a WNBA-low 70.9 points per game, shooting 39.6% from the field and below 30% on three-pointers.
Dream vs. Sun prediction, pick
The travel advantage is nice, but they play the games on the court for a reason. Expect the Sun to show some life early on in this game, but for the Dream’s overall talent level to rise to the top. Atlanta limited Connecticut to just 22 points in the second half in the first meeting, with this game being far from its best form of basketball. No player scored over 18 points, and the team shot just 28.6% from beyond the three-point line. Griner was also out of the lineup––her size will make an impact tonight against a defense with little interior resistance.
Expect Connecticut to keep things close in the early minutes before Atlanta goes on a run to put the game out of reach. I struggle to see how the Sun can put forth the necessary offensive production to keep up. This lack of scoring also has me backing the under. The game total finished with just 134 total points in the first matchup, and it would require a significant jump to eclipse the 158.5-game total. Expect Atlanta to continue its strong play and secure the win vs. Connecticut.
