Entering Friday, both the Diamondbacks and Reds find themselves outside of the National League playoff picture. However, each side remains loaded with talent, making this upcoming series a battle between two underperforming squads. Can Arizona earn a road win tonight, or will Cincinnati deliver in front of its home crowd? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday night’s showdown between the Diamondbacks and Reds.
Arizona enters tonight as slight favorites (-118) over Cincinnati, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Friday’s contest.
Diamondbacks at Reds prediction, preview
When looking over the stat sheet, this doesn’t appear to be a competitive pitching matchup. The Reds will send Nick Lodolo to the mound, currently enjoying a career year. Over 69.2 innings, the hard-throwing lefty has recorded a 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 60 strikeouts. In his last outing, the 27-year-old tossed six scoreless innings against the Cubs, one of baseball’s best offenses. Lodolo has allowed more than three earned runs in only two of his 12 appearances this season.
On the flip side, the Diamondbacks will counter with hurler Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s been a brutal first few months for the veteran; through nine starts, he’s posted a ghastly 7.05 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. In addition, E-Rod has been on the hook for 10 earned runs over his last two outings (14.52 ERA). However, the lefty’s 4.29 FIP suggests that he’s been one of the league’s unluckiest pitchers. Perhaps he can find success against the Reds, who have posted baseball’s fourth-lowest batting average against southpaws (.213). Tonight, Rodriguez will be making his first start since May 14th, having been sidelined due to shoulder inflammation.
For all their question marks on the mound, the Diamondbacks have reeled off four straight wins. Leading the charge has been second baseman Ketel Marte, hitting a blistering .500 three homers and six RBIs in that time. The Reds have been much worse recently, having dropped four of their last five contests. During that stretch, only Jose Trevino (.375) and Elly De La Cruz (.364) have a batting average above .250.
Diamondbacks at Reds pick, best bet
It’s easy to forget now, but Arizona entered the season as a dark-horse World Series contender. While the Snakes haven’t had the best pitching so far, their offense is still scoring the fourth-most runs per game (5.11). However, Lodolo is no pushover; the budding ace is emerging as a legitimate All-Star candidate. Despite Cincinnati’s struggles against lefties, there’s also not much to suggest a bounce-back from Rodriguez. The Diamondbacks should make things close, but I’m leaning towards the Reds at near-even money.
Best Bet: Reds ML (-102)
Lodolo’s edge over Rodriguez is enough to ignore Cincy’s rough week. Following a day of rest, expect a better performance from the Reds on Friday.
