After a five day layoff, the NBA returns on Thursday night for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. From a betting standpoint, it’s one of the more lopsided NBA Finals in recent memory. OKC is the eighth largest betting favorite ever on the NBA Finals series line (was sixth until money on Indiana shifted the price), and the largest favorite since the 2018 Warriors were priced at -1100 against the Cavaliers.
While the Thunder have been a dominant home team throughout the regular season and postseason, getting off to a strong start in this series will be important. More on that later, but the Pacers have won Game 1 as a road underdog in each of the last two series, so they won’t be catching anyone off guard. OKC has been a different animal this season, though. The Thunder are an absurd 34-14-2 ATS as a home favorite this season. The spread for Game 1 has ballooned all the way up to double digits, and OKC is a whopping 26-13-1 when favored by 10 or more points this season.
This is only the third time we’ve seen a double digit spread on Game 1 of the NBA Finals over the last 25 years, however, both underdogs covered the previous games. The Cavs were +12.5 in 2018, and actually had a great chance to win outright (you may remember J.R. Smith dribbling out the clock off an offensive rebound in a tied game), before falling by 10 points in overtime. Allen Iverson’s 76ers were +11.5 in 2001 against a Lakers team that was undefeated to that point in the postseason, and Philly actually did win that game outright (the step over Ty Lue game) in overtime!
The Lakers were also 9.5-point home favorites in 2002 and 2004, and went 0-2 ATS in those games. In 2002 they beat the Nets by five points, and in 2004 the underdog Pistons won outright. That makes dogs of 9.5 points or more in Game 1 of the NBA Finals 4-0 ATS and 2-2 SU over the last 25 years. However, three of those games involved the Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal Lakers of over 20 years ago.
I mentioned returning to the importance of the Thunder getting off to a strong start in the series, and that’s exactly what favorites have done in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 2005. Over the last 20 seasons, the favorite in Game 1 of the NBA Finals is 18-2 SU and 17-3 ATS — the failed cover was the 10-point win by Golden State in 2018.
Historically speaking, favorites win Game 1 of the NBA Finals. And this OKC team is historically good on its home floor. I expect the Thunder’s defense and transition offense to be the key to the game, as it’ll be unlike anything Indy has seen to this point in the Eastern Conference — and the last time the Pacers did see it at the Paycom Center on March 29 they lost by 21 points.
While I’m going to shy away from laying double digits in the game, I will back the Thunder to get off to a strong start in the game, and ultimate take the 1-0 lead. DraftKings Sportsbook has the best price in the market on the first quarter/full game double result (to lead after 1Q and win the game), which is how I’m going to play this one.
NBA Finals Game 1 Best Bet: OKC 1Q/FG (-125) – 1-unit
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