This will be the final game of a four-game series in the South Side of Chicago.
Casey Mize is scheduled to pitch for Detroit while Sean Burke should get the nod for Chicago.
Tigers at White Sox prediction, preview
Casey Mize has a 2.82 ERA. He’s the greatest thing since sliced bread! Unfortunately, the 4.05 FIP doesn’t support it. The BABIP is only .266 while the strand rate is an elevated 87.6%. The walk rate is only 5.8%, but the strikeout rate isn’t robust at only 21.6%. Mize is allowing a 10.6% barrel rate and 90.5 mph average exit velocity, which has translated to eight home runs in 51 innings.
Mize has reverse splits, as right-handed batters have feasted on him, slashing .273/.311/.455. Five of the eight home runs allowed have been to righties. Lefties are only slashing .198/.245/.323 while 30 of 45 strikeouts have been lefties. Mize has also been better at home.
Mize has allowed four earned runs in two starts. In his most recent outing in Kansas City, he allowed three earned runs in only 3.1 innings, his shortest outing of the season. In five other starts, he allowed one earned run while he pitched a shutout in his first start of the season.
Against right-handed pitching, the White Sox have struck out at the seventh-highest rate while having the 29th-best ISO. The wOBA is dead-last in MLB.
Sean Burke got his first taste of the majors last season and thrived, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate while allowing two home runs and three earned runs in 19 innings. That success hasn’t translated to this season, as the strikeout rate is 17% while the walk rate is 11.7%. He’s allowed nine home runs and 28 earned runs in 60 innings. The 5.27 FIP doesn’t support the 4.2 ERA, but there are some slivers of optimism, as the hard hit rate is only 37.5% while the average exit velocity is 87.8 mph.
Burke has no home/road splits but righties have had more success against him than lefties.
The Tigers have struck out at the third-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 13th in ISO. The wOBA is 13th-best.
As for bullpens, Detroit has the 12th-lowest FIP while Chicago has the 25th-lowest.
Tigers at White Sox pick, best bet
The White Sox offense is so inept that I think Mize and the Tigers bullpen can stymie them all day. On the flip side, I do think Burke can keep things close, but he will likely give up some runs while the White Sox bullpen is always susceptible. I like a low-scoring game but with the Tigers prevailing.
