One of the best things about being a baseball fan is that there’s nonstop action; with the exception of a thinner Thursday slate, almost every team is in action every single day. That gives slumping players more opportunities to break out of their malaise and teams more games to make up ground on the division leaders.
Tonight’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves will feature two chasing teams in stacked divisions. Arizona is 29-31, fourth in the NL West, and Atlanta is 27-32, fourth in the NL East. Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, while Chris Sale will start for the Braves. First pitch will be 7:15 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks at Braves prediction, preview
Atlanta’s offense has been buoyed by the return of Ronald Acuña Jr., the 2023 NL MVP who tore his ACL in May 2024. He returned prior to the May 23 game against the San Diego Padres and hasn’t missed a beat, going deep on the very first pitch he saw and slashing .342/.405/.632 through his first 10 games. It hasn’t necessarily helped the team much — across that stretch, the Braves have gone just 3-7 — but having the Venezuelan in the lineup is obviously better for the team in the long run. He got two hits in the series opener yesterday and Atlanta scored three runs, but it wasn’t enough, as Spencer Strider got lit up.
Thankfully for the Braves, they’ll send a much better pitcher than Strider to the mound in the future Hall of Famer Sale. The ageless wonder, who claimed his first career Cy Young Award in winning the pitching triple crown as a 35-year-old last year, is off to another very solid start, pitching to a 3.06 ERA in 67.2 innings. He’s been especially hot as of late, having posted a 1.66 ERA over his last eight starts, walking 16 and striking out 62 across that span. Batters have made harder contact with Sale’s offerings this season than last, but he’s recorded the exact same expected wOBA (.212) on his signature slider in each of the last two seasons, and his velocity and spin rates are fairly consistent with last year’s.
Arizona’s offense should provide Sale with a challenge, given that it has posted the league’s fourth-highest OPS this season and scored the fifth-most runs. The Diamondbacks have been exceptionally hot as of late, having the second-best offense in baseball during May, but it hasn’t correlated with success, as they’ve gone just 3-9 in their last 12 games. Their pitching staff has been bad, owning the sixth-worst ERA in the league, and that has extended to Kelly, who has conceded four earned runs in each of his last two games. The sidearm slinger ranks in just the 15th percentile in hard-hit percentage this season, a category in which Atlanta ranks seventh. Arizona also has the league’s fifth-worst bullpen, although it should be pretty fresh because Zac Gallen pitched seven innings yesterday.
Padres at Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+120)
Regardless of position and regardless of team, the Braves have the two best players in this game: Sale and Acuña. Of course, baseball is a team game, and Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are no slouches either, but Sale posted five innings of one-run ball in his last outing against the Diamondbacks on April 25. Kelly’s 3.78 ERA is mostly driven by one blow-up start, but his last two mediocre outings indicate that his hot stretch is over.
Strong Lean: Ronald Acuña Jr. 2+ Hits (+175)
Acuña has recorded two or more hits in five of his 10 games this season, and while he’s unlikely to hit .342 for the rest of the season, he did hit .337 with 69 multi-hit games during his MVP season, so it’s not remotely far-fetched. Kelly has allowed an .847 expected slugging percentage to righties on the 92 cutters he has thrown to them and has gotten exceptionally lucky that hitters have only posted a .333 mark. Being lucky won’t cut it against Acuña.
