An inter-league showdown between the Red Sox and Braves is on tap tonight in Atlanta. Boston has endured a brutal five-game losing streak, marked by injures and late-game collapses. It’s been rough for the Braves recently as well; they’ve gone 3-7 over their last ten games. Both squads have a record just under .500, giving this weekend’s series added importance.
The Braves enter Friday as favorites (-166) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into tonight’s contest.
Red Sox at Braves prediction, preview
We’ll start with the visiting Red Sox, who enter tonight in dire straits. Their best hitter this season, Alex Bregman, is sidelined with a serious quad injury. Despite the stellar pitching of Garrett Crochet, Boston owns baseball’s 13th-highest ERA (3.99). To make matters worse, Rafael Devers’ refusal to play first base has turned into an unwelcome talking point.
Despite the Devers drama, Boston has still scored the eighth-most runs per game this season (4.74). Even without Bregman, this club should have enough quality hitters to remain competitive. It’s on the mound where things have gotten difficult. Tonight, the Red Sox are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with pitcher Lucas Giolito. The former All-Star missed all of last season as he recovered from an elbow injury. Since returning on April 30th, the right-hander owns a mediocre 5.27 ERA. However, he did toss seven innings of scoreless ball vs. the Orioles last week.
The veteran will face a tougher test on Friday against a lethal Braves offense. Granted, that hasn’t been the case for most of the season; Atlanta has only scored the 18th-most runs per game (4.16). However, the team welcomed back superstar Ronald Acuna last week. With their former MVP healthy, the Braves are a far deeper lineup. They’ll be supporting second-year starter Grant Holmes on the mound, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. Over his last five starts, the 29-year-old has logged a 2.93 ERA and 29 strikeouts. That includes a six-inning, two-run performance against the Sox at Fenway Park on May 17th.
Red Sox at Braves pick, best bet
At this point, neither of these teams deserve a massive vote of confidence. The Red Sox have been atrocious lately, but it’s not as if the Braves have been setting the world on fire. Still, it’s clear that Atlanta has the edge on the mound. Holmes is turning into another success story for a franchise that excels at developing pitchers. In comparison, the jury is still out on Giolito. The veteran enjoyed a quality outing vs. Baltimore, but he’s also had some dismal games this season.
Since Acuna’s return, the Braves are only scoring 4.0 runs per game. During their losing streak, the Red Sox have only scored 2.0 runs per game. Something’s gotta give tonight…or does it? As previously mentioned, Holmes has looked like an All-Star caliber pitcher over the past month. In addition, he’s shown an ability to handle this Boston lineup (with Bregman playing). The same can’t be said for Giolito, but he’s allowed no more than three runs in over half of his appearances this season. I’m willing to bet that both starters do their jobs on Friday.
Best Bet: Red Sox-Braves UNDER 9.5 runs (-118)
Despite the firepower on both lineups, the Red Sox and Braves have looked off at the plate. Giolito and Holmes will do just enough on the mound tonight to go under this total.
