You’ve gotta love when two hot teams face each other, giving a playoff-like atmosphere to a weeknight game in late May. That’s what’ll happen tonight in Houston, when the Astros begin a series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Both teams have been on fire as of late, with Houston having won each of its last four games and Tampa Bay seven of its last eight. In the Rays’ case, the hot streak has lifted them over .500.
Coincidentally, Tampa Bay’s run began in the last two games of the teams’ previous series last week. After the Astros claimed the first game, 4-3, behind a Jake Meyers seventh-inning home run, the Rays staged a late comeback to win the second game before convincingly taking care of business in the series finale. Currently, both teams sit second in their respective divisions.
While neither team has officially announced its starting lineup, it’s likely that Shane Baz will crest the hill against Ryan Gusto. First pitch will be at 8:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays at Astros prediction, preview
This game could be a defensive affair, but only if each starter is pulled early. Neither team is sending its staff ace to the mound — Baz sports a 4.94 ERA this season, while Gusto’s mark is a scantly-more impressive 4.58 — but both bullpens are elite. This season, Houston’s relievers have posted a 2.67 ERA, the second-best mark in the league, while Tampa Bay’s are at 3.26. The Rays’ bullpen only had to pitch 7.2 innings over the last three games, and the Astros’ relievers have only been responsible for six innings since their most recent off day. At the first sign of trouble, both managers should have no issue turning to their elite ‘pens.
Baz has had a rough go of things the last five starts, having given up five or more earned runs in three of them and issuing three or more free passes twice, making it through the sixth inning on only one occasion. Also, despite a fastball thanks ranks in the 87th percentile in velocity, he’s had trouble missing bats, inducing fewer than 10 whiffs in four of his last five starts, which could be an issue against a team that swings at the league’s 11th-highest rate. He’s also a bit prone to the long ball, although only nine of his 10 homers would’ve gone out at Daikin Park.
Gusto probably won’t go as deep into the game, because he’s alternated between the bullpen and the starting rotation this season and has completed the fifth inning only twice. He, too, is prone to big hits, ranking in just the seventh percentile in average exit velocity and the 23rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, and though Tampa Bay has produced the seventh-lowest average exit velocity and the eighth-lowest hard-hit rate, he has allowed an above-average number of pulls in the air. That could be a bad recipe against the Rays’ lefty-heavy lineup at a park that has been the seventh-most homer-friendly to southpaws over the last three seasons.
Rays at Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (-118)
Houston’s recent hot form has been more impressive than Tampa Bay’s, in my opinion. The Astros produced 16 total runs in two games against the Athletics — who, to be fair, don’t have a very good pitching staff — and won three of four games against a Seattle Mariners team that had won 11 of its previous 13 series. The Rays’ recent series wins came against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been badly slumping on offense, and a Minnesota Twins team with the seventh-worst OPS. As for last week’s series between the teams, Houston is 20-10 at home.
Strong Lean: Isaac Paredes 1+ Home Runs (+500)
Baz has given up at least one homer in each of his last five starts, and Paredes has hit at least five long balls in his last 10 games. Plus, the Tampa Bay starter throws a four-seam astball 48% of the time despite giving up an expected slugging percentage of .443 on the pitch, and Paredes has posted a .540 slugging percentage against four-seamers. He’s also the rare righty with reverse splits, slashing .291/.390/.508 against righties and .087/.192/.217 against southpaws.
